Hsp $500k

Kurn · #1 11-06-07, 02:13 PM

So, we see Jamie Gold, who wants to be known as "the greatest bluffer in the game" learn that you can't bluff a billionaire.

We get to see Gabe Kaplan, in the space of about 2 minutes, tell us we'll see real fireworks on the river becauser Doyle will call (holding 3rd nut flush) Gold's big turn raise (with 4th nut flush), then be shocked when Doyle folds to the raise, and then without even missing a beat explain why it made sense that Doyle folded (old-school play vs. new-school player).

We get to see play that can only be described as "scared money" - Antonius barely getting involved, Sammy playing ultra-tight (well, for Sammy), and Antonio being terrified to call a medium-sized river bet holding a set of aces with the only possible big hand (IIRC) being a back door flush.

Methinks that except for Laliberte and possibly Gold, they're all being staked for this game.

Talking Poker · #2 11-06-07, 03:50 PM

Preview from next week's episode (hopefully unedited):

Jamie Gold - "I'm all in."
Patrick Antonius (instantly) - "I call."

Oh, that's some good stuff right there!

Kurn · #3 11-06-07, 04:39 PM

We can only hope.

Invigilator · #4 11-06-07, 06:19 PM

Watch that not even be from the same hand.

Spidey44 · #5 11-07-07, 08:22 AM

I would so love to see Gold get busted. Maybe he's a good guy, but they sure do portray him as being the most annoying person on the planet.

I'm so tired of hearing about how he wants to be the greatest bluffer.

New Guy · #6 11-07-07, 03:37 PM

Oh I guarantee its going to be two different hands.Thats how they do it in the editing world!!Watch

Spidey44 · #7 11-09-07, 01:34 AM

My favorite part of HSP is going to commercial after every hand

I love the show, but wish there were more hands to see!

Kurn · #8 11-13-07, 08:38 AM

Well, it was unedited, and if you haven't seen it, it was indeed a "wow" moment.

There's a math discussion regarding Antonius' decision, but I'll wait to introduce that as it would be a spoiler.

BlibbityBlabbity · #9 11-13-07, 10:07 AM

"Driving Miss Raisey Daisy"....lol

WOW moment is right.

Talking Poker · #10 11-13-07, 01:16 PM

Off to PokerTube I go!!!

(Thanks for the reminder)

Talking Poker · #11 11-13-07, 05:14 PM

O

M

G

I'll leave it at that for now... don't want to spoil it for anyone. But, WOW!

Nikita · #12 11-13-07, 05:16 PM

Watching it now since everyone is talking about it. Definitely don't want any spoilers.

Invigilator · #13 11-13-07, 05:25 PM

3 times? Where the hell did that come from?

One of them is an idiot for either suggesting it or accepting it. I am not sure which just yet.

Talking Poker · #14 11-13-07, 06:49 PM

Why? I'd prefer 3 over 2 for a pot that size, personally. That way, at least someone "wins."

Invigilator · #15 11-13-07, 07:11 PM

I'll admit, I have never been in this situation, but I don't see why Antonius would say 'okay' to this. 3 would be good for Gold since he needs the dough to buy new underpants after Antonius called. (regardless of the results)

Talking Poker · #16 11-13-07, 07:29 PM

You understand that the number of times you run the board (the river card, in this case) doesn't change th EV of the situation, right? Whether they run it once, twice, or 15 times, the long term EV os the situation remains exactly the same. All running it more than once does is lower the short term variance by basically forcing the monetary results of the hand to be slightly closer to the actual equity each player has in the pot.

I would think the results of the running it three times alone would answer your question as to why Antonius would say OK.

melioris · #17 11-13-07, 08:55 PM

if anyone is reading this thread then they shouldn't worry about spoilers. That hand was incredible. Wow. I was actually feeling sorry for JG when the K came. TP, your boy-toy handled the soul sucking defeat well.

But by far the best part of the show was Doyle getting grumpy at the end and wanting the game to move faster. He is such a grumpy old man, I love it. And then Gabe riffing that Doyle was missing "Big Valley". I laughed my ass off at that. That show was awesome and I can totally see DB watching it.

Kurn · #18 11-13-07, 09:37 PM

Running it more than once reduces variance, not EV, since in effect, it is akin to playing the same hand 3 times. The more often you run the hand the closer the immediate result comes to the actual EV. While PA (prior to the running of the rivers) would have probably preffered to only see one or two rivers, he yields to Golds suggestion for the same reason you don't tap the glass. He wants to keep the fish happy and playing, and if running it 3 times accomplishes that, then PA is happy to oblige as he believes he will take Gold's money in the long run.

Also, PA's demeanor after the hand was beyond awesome. That in and of itself tells me he has what it takes to be the best in the world.

melioris · #19 11-13-07, 10:06 PM

Question: were they deep enough for JG to call the turn bet assuming implied odds and if so, does he get paid off when the river pairs the board?

Talking Poker · #20 11-13-07, 11:33 PM

The first half of your first paragraph says pretty much exactly what I said, using slightly different words. I disagree with your assessment that PA agreed to run it three times to keep Gold happy though.

A. Who cares if Gold is happy? This is tv, and you know he's not leaving. He need to act like a fearless donkey and try to be the best bluffer in the world, remember?

B. This is about as good of an opportunity as you are ever (literally) going to get to break Gold (he's not going to be playing for nearly 800k pots on a regular basis - that figure likely represents 1/3 to 1/2 of Gold's roll), so why not just go for it now? If anything, your logic is backwards - he should be ok with running it once and risking the chance of Gold scooping the whole pot if he knows he'll have time to take it back from him later.

PA agreed to run it three times for the simple reason that it reduces variance. Even though the largest pot ever shown on HSP may not be the biggest he's ever played for, it's still a lot of money, and the more times you run it, the closer your share of the pot will be to your expected value - 77% or whatever it was in this case.

Shit, if that were me, I'd run it with every last card in the deck if Gold wanted to. Why not? Sure, I'll plit the pot 77/23 with him right now.

Talking Poker · #21 11-13-07, 11:36 PM

If I'm Gold, I smooth call there for sure. By making that huge overbet shove, you fold out everything you beat (except for maybe a lower set) and get called by ONLY AJ. If he called, he certainly could have gotten SOME amount of money out of Antonius when the board paired, or lost a lot less if it didn't.

BlibbityBlabbity · #22 11-13-07, 11:53 PM

I like the 3 times in this case since even if JG gets lucky he is likely only doing it once out of 2 OR 3 runs. If you run it twice you run a greater risk of not making anything off of the nuts in this case (two lucky cards or one lucky card by JG, while making PA have to get lucky to make a profit by holding up TWICE). By running it three times, you make JG have to hit twice to take more than 1/2 the pot from you and hit THREE times to scoop almost assuring you at least something out of the pot.

I see the run it twice making more sense in a coinflip. My first thought when I saw this was why the hell would he want to run it more than once anyway, but for that much money you don't want to see a sick beat card come off for the whole pot.

Kurn · #23 11-14-07, 08:31 AM

The more I think about this, the more I agree with you.

Kurn · #24 11-20-07, 06:55 AM

1st hand took 17 minutes, and made Doyle grumpy for the rest of the show.

bigd007x · #25 11-20-07, 07:09 AM

yea i was really annoyed also how it went raise call preflop but it was going raise reraise rereriase before the flop even came out. they were just tellign each other how to play their hands. i serious cant wait untill gold gets felted so daniel or phil lak can come in the game.