I think I need a boost...

Talking Poker · #1 04-05-08, 02:40 AM

You probably know that I've been playing almost exclusively $200 HU SNGs for a while now - pretty much all of 2008 (I played a bunch of $100s in January, but all $200s since). I've played 938 this year, and have a 6.6% ROI. Note that that is including 150 $220 turbos where I had a -13.3% ROI (ugh - nasty combo of running AND playing badly resulted in me going 68-82). Lifetime in the $200 regulars (838 matches), I have a 9.3% ROI. These numbers are not including rakeback, bonuses, etc.

I will be the first to admit that I have been running pretty damn hot for the past week and change, but I also had two ridiculous downswings earlier this year. I think approaching 1000 SNGs is probably a decent sample, right?

So, here's the problem (and I guess it's a good problem to have): I keep building up my account and then cashing out, rinse and repeat. I WANT to take it to the next level (I think I do anyway), but $500 buy ins are 2.5x what I'm playing at now - and knowing how easy it is to lose 4, 5, 6 in a row (I once lost TEN straight $220+10 turbos), I'm not sure I'm ready for that kind of potential downswing.

How many buy ins do you think I should have (leave) online before taking a shot? Should I maybe try to play a set number of them (maybe 10?), and move back down if I win 5 or less, and continue with the shot if I win 6 or more?

I really don't know what to do. I feel like I'm at a crossroad, and I'm torn. Quite frankly, I'm happy to keep grinding out the $200 SNGs, so I just might do that. But I'm interested to hear people's thoughts.

Windbreaker · #2 04-05-08, 03:16 AM

Like with everything else in life....it depends.

I'll comment on my own experiences. My main game are $60 - 5 table turbo sngs. If anyone wants to experience some huge swings....I recommend playing these...haha.

I started with with the $27 dollar tourneys. And had a crazy ROI. The jump to the $60 was a simple...as I continued to play the $27 and mixed in a few 60s. The jump was really easy, even though the competition was a lot harder. I went through a massive up swings at the start. Since that time, I've played probably over 5000 5-tbl sngs. My worse downswing was for about 9k (maybe a bit more).

I could only absorb the lost because I leave a lot of money on my online roll. It never got to the point where I had to switch games or move to a lower level. If it came down to it, I would probably move down to a lower level first.

For your situation, I would probably continue playing the $200s....and when you're having a good or break even day...feeling good...then play one or two $500s to end the session.

Continue to do so until you feel confident you can beat the game....if you can't, stay at the $200s. I don't see why you would have to force yourself to move up to a higher level first and stay there.

The swings in the HU's are probably a lot less swingy than the 5 tbl turbos as you game selection is a lot easier to decide...instead of joining every one possible.

Good luck in any case.

Zybomb · #3 04-05-08, 04:26 AM

HU SNGs the standard req is 40-50 buy ins

Kurn · #4 04-05-08, 09:23 AM

I would say that number sounds reasonable, but Moshman says for any SNG 100 buy-ins is best. That sounds extreme to me, but the SNG wonks on 2p2 seem to agree.

Wes · #5 04-05-08, 09:36 AM

I would think that 100 buyins is more suited towards 9-man since it is pretty regular to drop 10-15 buyins in a day, but losing that same amount of buyins at HU sngs would be an odd occurrence.

And I'd just take a shot at $500s whenever you feel comfortable. I'm sure you are bright enough to realize not to go broke at the above level so you can always move down if things don't go well.

Kurn · #6 04-05-08, 09:54 AM

That's my gut feeling, too. On the other hand, some statistics geek might have a formula that says my gut is wrong.

Talking Poker · #7 04-05-08, 11:06 AM

Well, that's just it. I could play 5 in a row and win or lose all 5, but that doens't mean I can or can't beat the game. 5 isn't any kind of sample.

I'm confident that I can beat the $500s, but I'm wondering how much my ROI would drop, and if it's worth the larger swings to grind out what may not amount to any additional winnings (and could be losings) at the end of the day.

Similar to what Windbreaker said, and I think it's good advice.

I think I will continue to primarily play the 200s, but keep an eye on the 500 lobbies. If I see a weak player sit down, I'll take a shot.

Zy - your boy Adrian is a HU SNG specialist, right? What's his screen name?