NFL - Week 4 Early - OFFICIAL THREAD

GeoffM · #1 09-25-06, 10:02 AM

Hopefully, we don't see another glut of threads like last week. I check the early lines every Monday morning and will start posting them here.

(posted in this order) Road Team Odds Home Team O/U

Indy -9 NYJ 45
SD -2.5 Baltimore 33
Minny pk Buffalo 34.5
Dallas -9.5 Tennessee 37
San Fran. +7 KC 40.5
NO +9 Carolina 42
Arizona +7.5 Atlanta 41.5
Miami -4 Houston 38.5
Detroit +5.5 STL 43
NE +6 Cincy OFF
Jax -2.5 Wash. 34
Cleve. -2.5 Oak. 34
Seattle +2.5 Chicago 35.5

GB +10.5 Philly 46.5

GeoffM · #2 09-25-06, 10:05 AM

My early picks would be on Baltimore, but this line will move by the time my book picks up the game, and I don't want to sign up at Pinnacle yet.

If NO performs tonight against a stingy Atlanta D, I see them at +9 as a solid play against a Carolina team that has struggled and barely squeeked one out against Minny.

I also like Minny as a PK vs. the Bills, the Bills just aren't that good and just got smoked by the Jets.

Also, look for the Pats to bounce back and win outright in Cincy.

Suicide pick of the week: Philadelphia (or Dallas)

eejit101 · #3 09-25-06, 10:28 AM

MIn / Pats / New orleans.

And Seattle/Bears at over 35.5

GTDawg · #4 09-25-06, 11:43 AM

Is the over in an October home Bears game really the best move here...?

=========
Also, are we looking at the same Pats team here? I don't see them doing squat against Cincy...

GeoffM · #5 09-25-06, 11:44 AM

Pats will come back firing. Steelers failed to capitalize on the Palmer INTs, New England will.

omahilo · #6 09-25-06, 01:06 PM

I have no idea who to take in my survival league this week.... need a good pick tho.

Also NO +9 looks awesome if they play ATL tough tonight, that would be a steal for sure.

jillaj · #7 09-25-06, 06:45 PM

Shaun Alexander is out for the hawks. Looks even better for my bears. Tried to go get some money on the game at bears -2.5 but they have taken the line down.

Reel Deal · #8 09-25-06, 10:43 PM

Umm, no.

PShabi · #9 09-25-06, 11:43 PM

Especially with Shaun Alexander out indefinitely. No.

lightfungus · #10 09-26-06, 12:33 AM

I just got minny at +1.5 in Buffalo, I'm willing to go down with that ship.

eejit101 · #11 09-26-06, 12:45 AM

with this news, ill now take the under

Min i am gonna be on top of, i really feel the pats are winning by a huge score this week, ill regret that, but its getting 2 units

bdawg31 · #12 09-26-06, 02:56 PM

Penguin - can you still post your picks in a seperate thread? I find it easier to get to your picks when they are in string(s) that you start.

Talking Poker · #13 09-26-06, 03:05 PM

As opposed to having to sort through all the riff raff, right?

Defendant · #14 09-26-06, 07:02 PM

How bout Indy Jets OVER 46?

GeoffM · #15 09-27-06, 10:23 AM

Also, 0.4 units on Tennessee money line +450, due to the Terrell Owens incident. Talk about a mega distraction to the max.

Reel Deal · #16 09-27-06, 01:45 PM

Set the time machine to 1984 today eh?

Zybomb · #17 09-30-06, 03:29 PM

I likely will have action on the following games

SD -2 vs Bal

The spread has moved down from -2.5, which generally worries me and prevents me from taking action... but in this case I think this is the week that the Ravens D is exposed for what it is... a good defense but not the best in the league. LT will have a big game, enough for the Chargers to get the W....if Rivers steps up it's just a +

Carolina -7 vs NO

I don't think there's any way NO can not have a letdown after the energy and spirit they brough last week. Back on the road, The undefeated Saints get a reality check, and Carolina, who need a win scores big here.

Atl -7 vs Arizona

At the same time, Atlanta bounces back after an embarrassing Monday Night game in front of a national audience with a win here at home over a team that has more problems than... well a lot of problems and questions surrounding both their coach and their starting players. Whether its Warner or Leinhart mistakes will be made

omahilo · #18 09-30-06, 11:40 PM

tommorrow Im going to turn my bad streak around, Im feeling good with these picks...

NO +8.5
SD -1.5
ARIZ/ATL UNDER 40.5
JACK -2.5
MIA -3.5
SF/KC OVER 40.5

PShabi · #19 10-01-06, 12:07 AM

Where's Max Headroom when you need him?

Talking Poker · #20 10-01-06, 02:30 AM

I have a feeling we're not going to be getting any more picks from Penguinfan... that sucks. I was planning on riding his picks all season, but now I may have to make my own.

I see you guys are already contradicting each other above (Saints game). I wouldn't touch that game, but if someone made me, I'd take the Saints and the points. Especially if you can get more than 7.

I haven't bet yet and there are a bunch of game I wouldn't touch, but I also see some that I like. Namely:

Indy -8 (like it, don't love it)
Chargers -1.5 (same)
Titans +9.5 (like this one a lot)
Chiefs -7 (another like)
Texans +3.5 (like)
Rams - 5.5 (definitely like this play)

I think that's it. I want to like the Eagles -10.5, but I can't.

So here's my problem with handicapping. I just listed 6 games that I like, and none that I LOVE. So which one(s) do I bet on??? I remember Penguin saying that you should only pick the BEST plays out there and bet the same number of units on each of them. Well, I don't know which of these are the best.... NOTHING really stands out to me as being "off" other than the Titans game, and even that line only looks to be about 3 points "off" to me... So anyway, when this is the case, do you just not bet at all?

I'm leaning towards betting smaller units and going with all my picks.

Zybomb · #21 10-01-06, 05:05 AM

Something is fishy with the SD Ravens Game. The spread started at -3 at the beginning of this weak... it quickly went down to -2.5, earlier today it moved to -2 and now it's -1.5.......... I really like SD here, however whenever a line moves like this, I would say with 80% accuracy the team it's moving in favor of (in this case SD) loses the game... Im leaning towards not touching the game because of this... something is up...

Zybomb · #22 10-01-06, 05:09 AM

The Indy line has moved down a full point and the Meadowlands is going to be pumped for this. The Jets weakest part of their D is their run D, and thats the part where Indy is lacking. I see this being a shootout game which the Jets wont be able to keep up with, but a toss up whether it'll be a TD win for the Colts or more....

Problems with the Titans and the Texans line... you're taking two of the worst teams in football and asking them to cover a spread for you... i realize theyre both home, but in general this isnt smart.... Tenn is playing Dallas (who is a team that always has their spreads blown up bc ppl all over the country like to bet on Dallas) which is one point in their favor... I just hate relying on bad teams to come thru.

The Rams bet isn't bad nor is the Chiefs.

thrash1294 · #23 10-01-06, 10:07 AM

I got the rams also today.
The lions are my whippingboys this season

kkirk1329 · #24 10-01-06, 10:57 AM

i got the ravens at +1.5 today.

Talking Poker · #25 10-01-06, 11:43 AM

Thanks for the feedback on my picks. Excellent point about the Texans/Titans. You too, Zy...

I'll be interested to see how I do on my own this week. I didn't keep track of my "hypotheticals" so far this year, but I do know that in Week 2 I would have been something like 4-1, and I think my other weeks would have had me an overall winner as well.

I ended up lowering the size of my "unit," but I bet on all of the games I liked.