Fun Night

SirFWALGMan · #1 02-03-06, 10:14 AM

I had a fun night. Lets just say I took 2 95%+ hands on the turn and lost both. Isnt it fun when the odds skew for a little bit. One was the final table at the WWDN weekly. AK vs AQ. All in on the flop. The other was a cash game. Flop comes 733. Guy pushes with J7 after calling 5xBB raise pre-flop. My AK s00ted had landed 2 s00ted cards and the7 was an under. With the push I assumed I had 17 outs. I was right. I turn the Ace and before the cheer is off my lips he rivers the 7.

Talking Poker · #2 02-03-06, 11:22 AM

Hate to say it, but neither of those hands was near a 95% favorite when the money went in.

Still sucks though.

SirFWALGMan · #3 02-03-06, 12:20 PM

The first one was not 94% with the money in but on the turn it was. The second one was 94% on the turn before I got rivered. True they only started as 84% or something.

With AQ the money went in on the flop when I was 82% favorite. Somewhat surprisingly I was a 51% favorite when the money went in with the 337 hand. On the turn it became 95%+, then the river killed me. So at A point in both hands I was favored by 94%+.. but your right, when the money went in I was not that high.

Talking Poker · #4 02-03-06, 12:54 PM

When the money went in is what matters, of course... but even so, what calculator are you using that is telling you that 4 outs = less than 5% with one card to come? Because whatever calculator it is, it's wrong... It's about twice that, in reality.

I mean, just think about it for a sec.... with 8 known cards (4 on the board, 2 in each hand), that leaves 44 unknown. 4 that help him and 40 that don't. 10:1. Which is obviously not 95%+.

SirFWALGMan · #5 02-03-06, 01:13 PM

CardPlayer.com HE odds calculator. Who has 4 cards that help? 337 leaves 2 7's that win the hand. A 3 gives me a better boat since I turned my Ace. On the AQ there were only 3 cards.

This brings up an even better point though. If I have a 1% favorite should I be willing to call an all in or is it better to fold? Considering that each stack is even and 10% of your stack (1.25 of 21) has already been invested into the pot. I can see going either way.. the investment to date is small, but if you apply a 1% edge over time for someone's entire stack is that a good thing?

Talking Poker · #6 02-03-06, 01:27 PM

Stupid TP. Right you are - the 3s weren't outs. But still, the point is, you need to calculate the odds when the money goes in, not at some other random time in the hand.

If the money goes all in preflop with your AA against some dude's 23 and the flop comes 223 and the turn is a 3 and the river is an Ace - he really shouldn't be comaplinaing aobut the "Bad Beat" he took, now should he?

As for your question, it depends on a lot of things namely the size of your bankroll. If you want to bet me $1 on a random number draw where I have numbers 1-51 and you have the numbers 52-100, I'll play you all day long. But, if you wanted to bet $1 million dollars on the same exact bet, I'd have to pass, even if you gave me 1 through 80 and you took 81-100. Even as a 4:1 dog, I simply can't risk the 20% chance of me losing $1 million. Now..... I may try to sell some of my action to a high roller type, but you see the point.

In poker though, assuming you are playing a cash game within your bankroll, you WANT to take those slight edges as much as you can. If your opponent turned his cards face up and you could see that you were a 51% favorite and the pot was laying you even money (or better, which it usually is), then yes, you should call.

In a TOURNEY however, that is not the case... AT ALL. In a cash game, if you go broke, you simply reload, but in a tourney, you are done. So in a tourney you need to avoid those situations (unless you feel that you are a much weaker player than your competition, in which case you should be taking risks and playing for big pot coinflip situations).