SuperBowl Bets...

[Talking Poker]

So, I randomly just remembered that when I was in Vegas for the WSOP, I made a handful of small Super bowl bets. I just dug out my tickets, and here's what I have (all to win the SB):

$5 on Chiefs at 10:1 - Loser.
$10 on Eagles (pays $70).
$5 on Colts (pays $40)
$5 on Falcons (pays $130).

Sadly, this can only mean one thing... Pittsburgh is a lock.

[eddo31]

well, unfortunately you got the NFC right in a year where the AFC should dominate the super bowl. tough luck, but it would be real nice for the falcons to come through for you.

[Talking Poker]

Yeah, but I have to root for the Eagles... I'd rather they win and I get paid less.

Funny thing.... when I made this post last night, I had a brain fart and thought the Colts beat the Patriots. What the crap was I thinking?

[GeoffM]

Yeah, the Pats are now the favorites to win. They are even -3 against Pitt. in Pitt. this week. I thought for sure I'd be getting some points with the Pats this week, but I'm still riding them all the way. They seemed to breeze thru the regular season not really caring so much about home field. Roethlisberger (I think I keep spelling his name wrong) is the most overrated QB in the league IMO.

[Penguinfan]

Is it possible for a QB who has not lost in 14 games to be over-rated?

BTW- careful how you answer, I am baiting you here.

[omahilo]

also Big Ben won like his last 11 or 12 college starts too so hes on like a 27 game winning streak.

Michael Vick is overrated stats wise but he does do the one thing that matters... helps his team win. they were like 4-12 without him last yr and the yr before that they beat GB @ GB in the playoffs.

Anyways that being said... I want Philly to get to the superbowl... McNabb is one of my favorite players and I have much respect for him and I hope its finally his time.

Also the Patriots will win the superbowl... I LOVE how people picked the colts over NE... the Patriots dont lose in the post season! When you look up team in the dictionary... you see a picture of the Patriots symbol.

[GeoffM]

With the running game Pitt. had all year, his only job was to not make any mistakes. He really did fairly little on the spectacular side (aside from playing on a good team) this year, and, well, he is the worst QB still around in the playoffs. I guess we'll find out this weekend, since the Pats have a tricky D and I doubt Pitt. will simply be able to ground and pound with Bettis and Staley. Let's see how Roethlisberger reacts to the wacky formations he'll be looking at Sunday. I say the Pats win in a romp to be quite frank. They absolutely man-handled the Colts "unstoppable" offense and shouldn't have a problem with Pitt. either. Hey I'm writing this so I am prepared to eat my words.

[Penguinfan]

Exaxtly, Pittsburgh won as a team this year 16 times and they will win number 17 as a team. Over-rated QB or not, this TEAM wins. While Indy was the publics favorite New Englands win over them is not really all that impressive when you factor in what kind of road team Indy was this year, yes they were 5-3 on the road, however the 5 road wins came against teams with a combined 17 games UNDER .500 record! Reguardless of what the coaching staff at Indy says this is a team built to win indoors, if they had to play any kind of decent road schedule they may not have made the playoffs at all. These kind of things go overlooked by the betting public all the time right before they pound their head on the ground wondering how thier 3 point favorite who looked so dominating the week before gets their ass kicked in an AFC championship game (That exact theory holds true for 2001 when Pittsburgh was a 9.5 point favorite).

Tired of hearing the rookie QB theory, and tired of hearing the Corey Dillon was not in the lineup earlier this year when the Steelers made quick work of NE. They were down 21-3 before they knew it, you don't run the ball all that much when your behind 3 scores anyway, and the defensive line of the Steelers CONTROLLED the game anyway.

This game will be over at half time and you heard it here first.

[GeoffM]

Whoa. I know NE will be up 21-3 at the half .

[Penguinfan]

Like I said, you heard it here first.

[GeoffM]

To be continued....

[omahilo]

Cowher cant win the big game so who are you kidding... hes 0-1 in the SB and 1-3 in the AFC Champ. game so he will just lose another big game and everyone will think hes great.

[Penguinfan]

The edge in the coaching matchup certainly goes to NE, however last time I checked the coaches didn't play defense and if anyone was paying attention the Steelers defense gave the Jets exactly 3 points.

Game on.......

[GeoffM]

Oh, lol. Now that post was a mistake. If you were paying attention, LMAO, the Pats gave the Colts (you know, best offense in the NFL, record-breaking QB blah blah blah) 3 points as well.

All in good fun, but that post there made me laugh LMAO. The Jets vs. Colts offense can't be compared. Pennington might be a "cutie" ROTFLMFAO, but the Colts O is 10 times what the Jets O is.

[jillaj]

I will bet money for anyone that wants it that the Pats will not be up 21-3 at the half. The Colts for the 2nd year in a row tried to beat the Pats with the pass. Look at the Steelers game earlier this year. You have to run the ball to beat the pats and I think the Steelers will be able to run the ball again.

[Penguinfan]

Well, maybe not. If you look a bit deeper you will see that outside of that dome they play in the Colts went 5-3 on the road scoring an average of 32 points in the wins against teams that were a combined 17 GAMES UNDER .500!!!! Hardly a team to worry about on the road, hardly. So the win against Indy is not as impressive as it would appear now was it?

You just don't hear that stat on ESPN every 5 minutes like you hear how impressive Payton Manning is huh, when in reality outside the comforts of home that offense is pretty average now isn't it? Two of their road losses were to KC and Denver, a combined .500 the other loss was obviously to NE.

Ever ask yourself even one time in your life how the hell Vegas wins every week when the bettors get to pick which side they want, even once wonder? Well now you know, because Joe Public only bets based on what ESPN tells them, and last week's game was a perfect example, the public drove that line to a 4 or 5 point swing some place in favor of the Colts and they were never in that game, were they?

Laugh all you want, but the fact of the matter is that the NE win over Indy was not all that impressive when you get right down to it and THEY are the ones in for a tougher game than they played last week.

To be continued.......

[Penguinfan]

THIS JUST IN.....

Bill Belichick finds cure for cancer!!!!!

[GeoffM]

LOL, this is fun. Someone is going to get an ear(or eye)-full on Monday. Aw, this is awesome. I cannot wait for that game whilst playing a sitngo.

[Kidd7138]

I have to side with Geoff on this one. I think you seriously overstate how bad the Colts were on the road this year. You know how many teams had a better road record than 5-3? Four in the entire league.

Also their offense, specifically Manning and the passing game, has very similar home and away numbers. Manning home this year: 67.9 Cmp%, 9.61 YPA, 26TD/5INT, 121.5 Passer Rating. Manning away this year: 67.3 Cmp%, 8.64 YPA, 23TD/4INT, 120.7 Passer Rating. And did you happen to actually see the game? The Pats D didn't just shut down the Colts offense, they completely dominated it.

[lightfungus]

Overrated? His states kinda suck for a QB man. Except of course for the W's, which you stated. His career winning is pretty sick. When he came back last year after breaking his leg he went 3-1. since then he has gone 11-4 i believe because he didnt start one game, so he is 14-5 since he came back then, and thats not bad. This man is a winner. Did you see him against the superbowl runner ups last year, he first game back? He thrashed the panthers, absolutely owned them. Did you see him do it to them again this year? He flew for the 12 yd TD run, he was parallel to the ground just long enough to get the ball across the goal line. This man is DANGEROUS. (but dont listen to me im from atlanta

Did anyone follow the Falcons this year? Our first 6 games or so, we went 5-1, and everyone of those games was WON by our defense. For gods sake we beat the Cardinals 6-3, 6-3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anyone watch us last week? "Oh the rams are a turf team, count that advantage out for the falcons. watch out for that 'explosive' offense" Dude we kicked their butts. Granted they couldnt stop the run, but maybe their is a reason for that??!! How do you stop our play action and bootleg. Jevon Kearse's thoughts....."Oh, its going to dunn...wait...&*(@& vicks got it!...Ok, Vicks gonna run with it this time...oh no...he gave it to duckett--> CHOO CHOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!" as Kearse runs from the freight train of a man.

Oh and crumpy dumps, hes the man. I love watching him, hes a ballerina of a football player and can pull them down. Price on the other hand...Dez white is promising.

I like Philly, my dads from there. But the atl is where i reside now. Watch out for the falcons, dont count them out.

My original pick was colts over falcons in superbowl. all i gotta say is colts got owned...hardcore like. It sure did look cold though! haha.

The Vick Experience is forizzle!

[GeoffM]

Please don't remind me about that Panther game, cost me $40 I thought was in the bag.

But what makes Vick dangerous is...his arm. Think about it, if he was a RB, obviously he wouldn't get nearly the yardage he does. The fact that blitzing him will leave receivers open on the field means you have to kind of let him beat you, and that's what he does. That's what I meant when I said he spreads the field, and then picks apart the secondary once he gets past the line.

Be nice to see him get a receiver or 2 next year, but I'll hold off talk about next year because the Eagles haven't beaten them yet.

[omahilo]

yeah like I said he wins... the Falcons without him were like 4-12 or whatever and they are SB contenders with him now. His passing stats arent great tho... his career completing % is like 52% but like I said before... he gets the W's on the board.

[lightfungus]

You know he has the ability to throw with both hands...Think what would happen if he got his left hand going, say 60% and then starting throwing with his right hand. He could roll out either way!

[DCopper04]

Yeah, Vick is a freak of nature, no doubt about it. Although we shouldn't give him all the credit for this team's turnaround; the defense was absolutely horrid last season, and Mora has done an excellent job turning it around. I think they will compete with the Eagles, but that Philly will go on to the big dance.

Big Ben and the Steelers are a great team, but I just don't see the Pats losing. The game would have to remain low-scoring in order for the Steelers to have a chance, because that way they could just give the ball to Deuce and Bettis, and Ben wouldn't have to make any big plays. But I expect the Pats to come out throwing and try to put up a quick couple scores, then make Ben beat them with his arm. Pats will win, and then beat Philly in the Super Bowl.

[GeoffM]

Dude the guy already rolls out either way. He can do whatever he feels like to defenses (except for the Bucs) and they can't do anything but like it.