Joe Public VS The Sportsbooks

[Penguinfan]

It has often been said that if you had access to the total number of wagers an hour before kickoff on Sunday and saw what the majority of the public bet on you could easily go against those plays and make money with no work at all.

Makes sense in theory since that is exactly what the books are doing, fading the public's plays. Unfortunatly we won't get access to those numbers, but just for fun let's see how the people at Yahoo Pick Em do. Thousands of entries and here are the numbers going into Sunday, so if you fade em all you should make money.

What we would play on is in bold

TAMPA BAY (3.0) Baltimore +3
Baltimore
63.4
36.6

CLEVELAND (3.0) NO +3
New Orleans
57.1
42.9

CAROLINA (5.0) Atlanta +5
Atlanta
76.1
23.9

Seattle (6.0) Detroit +6****Most one-sided****
DETROIT
83.2
16.8

Philadelphia (4.5) Houston +4.5
HOUSTON
81.0
19.0

TENNESSEE (3.0) NYJ+3
New York (NYJ)
68.2
31.8

KANSAS CITY (2.5) KC-2.5
Cincinnati
33.0
67.0

Denver (3.5) STL +3.5
ST. LOUIS
72.2
27.8

NEW ENGLAND (9.0) Buffalo +9
Buffalo
74.8
25.2

JACKSONVILLE (2.5) Jacksonville -2.3
Dallas
36.5
63.5

Chicago (3.5) GB +3.5
GREEN BAY
73.2
26.8

ARIZONA (7.5) SF +7.5
San Francisco
77.5
22.5

Indianapolis (3.5) NYG +3.5
NEW YORK (NYG)
67.7
32.3

WASHINGTON (4.5) Minny +4.5
Minnesota
66.6
33.4

San Diego (3.0) OAK +3
OAKLAND
70.2
29.8



As you can see Joe Public is only backing two underdogs, both the current sexy public teams in Dallas beacuse of TO and Cincy becasue of how ESPN has jammed Carson Palmer down our throats. Any time the public backs a dog it sends up a giant red flag.

This is exactly how I would think Joe Public would bet this week, and if you don't think the books know this and set the lines accordingly stick to blackjack when you go to the dessert.

Obviously every dog is not gonna cover the number, but let's see how the numbers come in.