JD's 1 play a day

JDMcNugent7 · #1 04-30-10, 01:26 AM

Here you will find my biggest play of the day and you can just follow along and probably lose, or fade all my bets and win all $. Actually I plan on making right around a million on this so we'll see how it goes.

Not going for the easy win plays where you lay $4OO to win $1OO, just my best value plays of the day.

Windbreaker · #2 04-30-10, 02:16 AM

Do you know that you're using the letter O for the number 0?

In any case, I think sports betting is like poker....most ppl thinks that they're better than what they are. The sports betting sites make a lot of money off the juice and have done a lot to set the lines "correct". Unless you have a database set up like Haralobos Volgaris I don't think it's best to treat sports betting like the lottery...and just have fun with it.

You really need a huge bankroll/bet large and hit in order to really hit a goal of a million.

JDMcNugent7 · #3 04-30-10, 04:28 AM

ya, 0 key is broken on the comp. I usually use.

The trying to make a million thing is a joke, but I'd take it. I literally have 0.002% on my sports betting site compared to the $ I have just in stock. So ya, def just doing it for fun, but it's not fun to lose, so might as well try to win.

Ya I know Vegas makes certain lines to sway people to bet on certain sides. Perfect example was Cubs game 2 days ago. The over under was set at 13! That is Insane, and they knew the public would see that # and just pound the under. They probably had the real line around 14.5, but they want at least some $ coming in on the over. The wind was blowing out to center field at almost 30 mph, a damn pop-fly was a homerun, Arizona scored 13 runs alone and Cubs added 5. Guarentee the sportsbooks cleaned up on that bet. I look at all the time to see thoughts on games after I come up with my own, and when they match up with winning bettors that's when I really love them. The good ones knew the over was the play as soon as they saw it set at 13.

I think sports betting is almost exactly like poker too. Juice kills sports, rake kills poker. In both, probably 99% of people lose $, and both have a small percentage of standouts who consistenly profit. BR management is a Huge key in both. Right now I feel like poker has way more skill than sports betting, but probably b/c I know 1000 times more about poker, and I'm sure a case could be made either way pretty easily.

15 unit Bet for Friday is Tampa Bay -1.5 over KC. Could take the -210 line but that is def not as +EV.

JDMcNugent7 · #4 04-30-10, 09:52 PM

good start: -15 units. Like the bet still just didnt work out

JDMcNugent7 · #5 05-01-10, 02:21 PM

good thing I was mad I lost and put way more on Dodgers -1.5 to make it back, best play might be TB -1.5 again but I'm waiting for the line to go down.

sjay2k · #6 05-01-10, 07:38 PM

I'll be happy to book your bets if you want a bonus 2c on every line you're getting from your sportsbook (Bodog?)

JDMcNugent7 · #7 05-01-10, 09:19 PM

using 5 dimes.com, It's way better than bodog. What do u use?

JDMcNugent7 · #8 05-01-10, 09:21 PM

The TB line actually went the other way and was never a good play, my fav play is a prop. LA Dodgers and Pitt, Hits+Runs+Errors, under 28. I also have under 9.5. Low scoring game will be great. 25 units on this

JDMcNugent7 · #9 05-01-10, 09:24 PM

I'm an idiot, just realized the Dodgers have their freakin closer starting this game for some reason. Might not bet this, guess I might not even have a bet for today, not sure.

JDMcNugent7 · #10 05-01-10, 09:30 PM

Well this guys making his first major league start so who knows what the hell is going to happen. Been reading all good things about him, and he's done well so far this year, but has never started. I'm going with the bet but might just bet less.

sjay2k · #11 05-01-10, 10:19 PM

Have lots of accounts - by far the best are Pinnacle and Betfair. Plus all of the random ones, where you can often find a line that is "off" which can give you a +EV bet or an arb.

Getting the best odds is half the battle. Say you are able to pick the correct side 53% of the time. If you get 1.91 (-110), you will get an average return of 1.23%. Now say you use Pinnacle, where you get 1.952 (-105), you will get an average return of 3.46%. Add in the random books (mostly lower odds but if you find a free point) and Betfair, and you should be getting effective odds of say 1.98, which is close to 5%.

JDMcNugent7 · #12 05-01-10, 11:13 PM

ya, the best thing to do that I do for my biggest bets is to go to twoplustwo, and they have a sportsbetting thread where we all just bet each other and no juice obv. So I don't really have a problem getting good odds

JDMcNugent7 · #13 05-02-10, 12:51 AM

biggest bet of the year is a winner. Both the unders won and I actually bet more than 25 units on this game but that's what i posted here, so here where it doesnt even matter ill keep it. +1O overall

JDMcNugent7 · #14 05-02-10, 02:36 AM

Sunday, STL-1.5 for 15 units and my favorite: STL/CIN over 7.5, 4O units. Carpenter is great but hasn't been As great as usual so far this year. The average score of games he's pitched in this year is 12.2, and average for A Harang who we're going against is 12.8. Both teams score an average of >5 runs a game, and team ERA's add up to >8. Basically every stat from this year points to >7.5. If you look back to last year it gets scary as both pitchers dominated each others teams, but this isn't last year and I just hope theres at least some decent hitting like there should be. They pitched vs each other April 5th in a 11-6 game. Basically all these stupid stats better work out and I'm good to go.

JDMcNugent7 · #15 05-02-10, 10:47 PM

ha cool how every # goes against me. 6 runs instead of 7.5 but cards win 6-O, -15 units overall