For the sports bettors

[Penguinfan]

POSTED BY TP IN ANOTHER THREAD:
It is not my intention to talk anyone into placing a wager on any game. Just sharing where my action will be for any given evening. I don't have action every night, only games that I think long term are good positions.

I've been doing this for a lot of years and believe me when I tell you the very best, the top 1% of handicappers rarely, if ever hit 60% in a year. You have to be willing to absolutly grind out an income in this game

Don't bet money on games you had no intention of playing just because I post it here, but if you are so inclined then I am happy to post my thoughts.

Good Luck

[Talking Poker]

And I for one am happy to read them.

I know there are people who SUCCESSFULLY make a living betting sports. I think it's got to be an extremely difficult (and dangerous) way to make a living... but like poker, sports wagering is clearly a game of skill, not a game of chance, so it only stands to reason that there are some people better at it than others.

It's got to be tough to beat the vig in the long run though.

If you don't mind me asking, Penguin, how are your long term numbers?

[Penguinfan]

Exact number from years gone by I just don't have, dollars and cents I can tell you to the penny for the last 5 years. I find it useless to post numbers on forums as it just starts the inevitable bashing that follows as nobody wants to believe people are winners or want to challenge how much anyone plays on a given bet.

I am still a small timer in terms of the sports betting world, still $200 a game, no more, no less. I keep that bankroll seperate from EVERYTHING else I do, including poker. I play very small stakes poker in comparison to my sports betting for a simple reason, I win at sports betting and lose at poker. Most people would not have that kind of discipline, I'm happy I do.

The sports betting bankroll is honestly a way to pay off the mortgage early, that much I wasn't joking about in the other thread. I've done well enough that we refinanced the house 3 years ago and dropped it to a 15 year mortgage from a 30 year mortgage which we had 27 years left and did not icrease our payment (actually went down $40 a month). Dropping the interest rate helped that process as well.

If things go well enough we will have it paid off 6 more years.

If I end up refinancing BACK to 30 years it means I lost my ass, let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[JDMcNugent7]

That's sweet- I just wanna bet my friends as we are all big gamblers, I'm way into Fantasy Football and am in a league for money and I am one person that will read all the posts about who u are picking to win that night and then decide from there. So thx, its helpful, and good job on it- sounds like ur doin awesome at it.

[Zybomb]

Penguin I am very interested in hearing your opinions... I bet sports small time, but I have a close friend who is much more serious than I am... I'd like to get a little more involved however.

[Talking Poker]

I wasn't asking for an exact number... all I was getting at is wondering if you are up or down long term.... I see you are up, and that's great. So my next question, is what kind of variance do you see with sports betting? Particularly yeear to year, but also month to month.... I realize it depends on how many games you bet each month, but I'm curious. Do you have 7 winning months per year? 8?

As for the $200 per game, that's interesting... So you look at $200 as one unit and that's what you bet, no matter how much you love a line?

I'm the exact opposite as you. I'm a VERY small time sports handicapper compared to poker.... I do it more for fun than anything. It makes the games a lot more exciting.

I opened my account in 1996 or 1997, made a small deposit, and haven't had to redeposit since. I started off betting $5 and $6 per game, and even making a bunch of $1 bets. I WAY up to the $10, $20 and occasional $50 range now - lol....

[junYUN]

betting on sports ruined a buncha people around me... and somehow despite my love for gambling, and my love for sports... i have never bet on a game.

power to those who can make money off it though... but one of my buddies is barely seeing the light after his $150,000 debt.

[Talking Poker]

Wow.... that's sick.

[junYUN]

yeah... but hey i guess it could be worse... his name could be mike matasow.

[Windbreaker]

The way I look at sports betting is basically the same as poker. In both you're trying to maximize others mistakes, and minimize your own mistakes.

Anytime a line is created, a person or a system impliments an artificial line to create action to generate equal EV on both sides for the sports book. This way the sports book can just profit from the juice. Whenever this artificial lin is created, a human element is involved which in results means there's a degree of error.

I feel the good sports bettors do is find the line that have the most margin of error. In general for a sports bettor to make money in the long term, they have to make less mistakes than the system that generated the line. Those who do so the best, will as a result profit the most.

This is just like poker where you want to put in your money when you know you're the favorite. And try to minimize your losses on hands that you just can't toss away.

And as in poker, there's always the element of luck that is really out of your hands after you have made your decision. However, it shouldn't alter the thought process if a similar situation occurs in the future.

[eddo31]

another comparison that you can make is between game/table selection and shopping for lines. finding a good game and playing solid poker can be much more profitable than playing your A game against a tough table. the same can be said for sports betting. shopping around and finding a good line, or even being able to find those 1 in a million times when you can lock up a win by betting bot sides of the line at different books, can be very profitable in itself. this is more of an indication of doing the legwork than of having significant skill, and it can be very profitable in the long run.