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SJay's Sportsbetting Thread
Will post my picks and history in this thread.
Will only post results where I have stood to gain or lose >$200. Please post your tips in here, as well as basic reasoning for them. Usually I think there is value in lines when: 1. the market has over-reacted to an abnormal performance 2. a side is dramatically overbacked because they are popular. I have my results from the past 3 months and everything before April 2008. Currently waiting on Betfair to email my statement from the intervening period (ridic hot streak in there) and i will update my results. Also please note that the results are net of commission (subtract 5% from wins for real results). History: 2007: Mar 27 -- Cricket -- Australia v West Indies, bet $2420 at 1.27, +$653 Mar 28 -- Cricket -- South Africa v Sri Lanka (in-play), bet $1200 at 1.47, +$564 Apr 1 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v West Indies, bet $400 at 1.59, +$236 Apr 2 -- Cricket -- NZ -79.5 runs v Bangladesh, bet $275 at 2.4, +$385 Apr 4 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v England, bet $210 at 1.47, +$99 Apr 8 -- Cricket -- Australia v England, bet $730 at 1.29, +$211 Apr 10 -- Cricket -- South Africa v West Indies, bet $300 at 1.54, +$162 Apr 10 -- Cricket -- South Africa v West Indies (in-game), bet $2000 at 1.12, +$240 Apr 12 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v NZ, bet $200 at 2.2, +$240 Apr 12 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v NZ (in-game), bet $1600 at 1.5, +$800 Apr 14 -- Cricket -- South Africa v NZ, bet $300 at 1.8, -$300 Apr 14 -- Cricket -- NZ v South Africa (in-game), bet $1500 at 1.43, +$645 Apr 16 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v Australia, bet $500 at 4, -$500 Apr 17 -- Cricket -- South Africa v NZ, bet $900 at 1.52, +$468 June -- NBA -- various bets on Dallas Mavericks playoff games, -$4200 Aug 18 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Sydney, bet $200 at 2.02, +$204 Aug 25 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Adelaide, bet $300 at 2.9, -$300 Aug 26 -- Soccer -- Newcastle v Middlesbrough, $450 at 2.76, -$450 Sep 2 -- AFL -- Jonathan Brown to kick most goals, bet $400 at 1.98, +$392 Sep 9 -- Rugby -- South Africa -50.5 v Samoa, $125 at 4.8, +$475 Sep 11 -- Rugby -- NZ to win World Cup, lay $1100 at 1.65, +$1100 Sep 12 -- Rugby -- Fiji -9.5 v Japan, $450 at 1.34, -$450 Sep 12 -- Rugby -- Italy -19.5 v Romania, $360 at 1.5, -$360 Sep 14 -- Rugby -- Australia v England, bet $525 at 1.54, +$283 Sep 15 -- Rugby -- Australia -5.5 v Wales, bet $620 at 1.45, +$279 Sep 16 -- Cricket -- South Africa v England, bet $600 at 1.52, +$312 Sep 19 -- Cricket -- India v England, bet $1350 at 1.99, +$1336 Sep 22 -- Cricket -- Australia v India, bet $950 at 1.5, -$950 Sep 24 -- Cricket -- India v Pakistan, bet $1300 at 1.85, +$1105 Sep 24 -- AFL -- Brent Harvey to win Brownlow, bet $1400 at 4.5, -$1400 Sep 26 -- Rugby -- Georgia -12.5 v Namibia, bet $750 at 1.9, +$675 Sep 28 -- Rugby -- Tonga +20.5 v England, bet $1400 at 1.77, +$1078 Sep 29 -- Rugby -- Australia -43.5 v Canada, bet $500 at 2.2, -$500 Sep 29 -- Rugby -- Scotland v Italy, bet $1200 at 1.41, +$492 Sep 30 -- Rugby -- Argentina v Ireland, bet $500 at 1.77, +$385 Sep 30 -- Rugby -- USA +58.5 v South Africa, bet $250 at 1.7, +$175 Sep 30 -- NRL -- Melbourne to win final, bet $300 at 1.41, +$123 Oct 7 -- Rugby -- Argentina -13.5 v Scotland, bet $1350 at 2.14, -$1350 Oct 8 -- Cricket -- Australia v India, bet $1455 at 1.54, -$1455 Oct 20 -- Rugby -- South Africa v England, bet $2800 at 1.47, +$1316 Dec 1 -- Soccer -- Chelsea v West Ham, bet $500 at 1.4, +$200 Dec 9 -- Boxing -- Mayweather v Hatton, $250 at 1.54, +$135 2008: Mar 31 -- Tennis -- Federer v Soderling, bet $390 at 1.2, +$78 May 17 -- AFL -- Kangaroos v West Coast, bet $200 at 1.28, +$56 May 17 -- AFL -- Brisbane -7.5 v Carlton, bet $400 at 1.86, +$344 May 18 -- AFL -- Essendon +37.5 v Sydney, bet $200 at 1.9, -$200 May 25 -- Cricket -- Deccan v Bangalore, laid $800 at 1.73, +$800 May 25 -- NBA -- Spurs v Lakers, bet $400 at 1.42, +$168 May 29 -- Tennis -- Hewitt v Fish, bet $470 at 1.38, +$178 May 30 -- NBA -- Spurs +8.5 v Lakers, bet $400 at 1.81, +$324 June 2 -- Tennis -- Ferrer v Stepanek, bet $800 at 1.62, +$496 June 5 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $300 at 1.78, +$234 June 8 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $200 at 2, +$200 June 10 -- NBA -- Celtics +9.5 v LA, bet $200 at 1.96, +$192 June 11 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Czech Republic, bet $650 at 1.84, +$546 June 12 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 192.5 pts, bet $250 at 2.12, -$250 June 12 -- NBA -- Celtics +8.5 v Lakers, bet $200 at 1.8, +$160 June 14 -- Soccer -- Russia v Greece, bet $400 at 2.4, +$560 June 15 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 191.5 points, bet $750 at 1.89, +$670 June 17 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $200 at 1.51, +$102 June 17 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 191.5 points, bet $300 at 2.16, +$348 June 17 -- Soccer -- Netherlands v Romania, bet $200 at 2.94, +$388 June 19 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Germany, <3.5 goals, lay $500 at 1.24, +$500 June 19 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Germany, >2.5 goals, bet $500 at 2.68, +$840 July 1 -- NRL -- Qld -4.5 v NSW, bet $400 at 2.12, +$448 July 2 -- Tennis -- Ancic +7.5 games v Federer, bet $600 at 1.71, -$600 July 3 -- Tennis -- Federer to win Wimbledon, bet $600 at 1.89, -$600 Jul 27 -- AFL -- Melbourne +26.5 v Kangaroos, bet $200 at 1.99, +$198 July 29 -- Olympics -- USA most medals, bet $620 at 2.3, +$806 July 30 -- Olympics mens basketball -- USA to win gold, bet $500 at 1.39, +$195 Aug 1 -- AFL -- Collingwood +15.5 v Hawthorn, laid $220 at 1.91, +$220 Aug 2 -- AFL -- Adelaide v Carlton, bet $200 at 1.72, +$144 Aug 2 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Kangaroos, bet $300 at 1.8, -$300 Aug 3 -- AFL -- Bulldogs -15.5 pts v Sydney, bet $520 at 2.01, +$505 Aug 20 -- Olympics mens basketball -- Australia v USA, under 180.5 pts, bet $400 at 1.86, -$400 Aug 20 -- Olympics mens basketball -- Argentina v Greece, bet $300 at 1.65, +$195 Aug 22 -- Olympics womens basketball -- Australia -28.5 v China, bet $300 at 3.6, +$780 Aug 23 -- Olympics womens basketball -- Australia +7.5 v USA, bet $500 at 2.34, -$500 Aug 29 -- AFL -- Fremantle +15.5 pts v Collingwood, bet $200 at 1.93, +$186 Aug 30 -- Tennis -- Jankovic v Zheng, bet $1200 at 1.46, +$552 Aug 30 -- Tennis -- Tsonga v Moya, $680 at 1.79, +$537 Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Roddick First Sret v Seppi, bet $600 at 1.34, +$204 Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Jankovic v Wozniacki, bet $450 at 2, +$450 Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Federer 3-0 v Stepanek, $200 at 1.91, +$182 Sep 1 -- Tennis -- Safina 12-0 v Groenefeld, bet $250 at 1.9, +$225 Sep 1 -- Tennis -- Monfils v Fish, bet $600 at 1.69, -$600 Sep 6 -- Tennis -- Federer v Djokovic, bet $400 at 1.82, +$328 Sep 7 -- AFL -- Geelong v St Kilda, Total match points <190.5, bet $200 at 2.94, +$388 Last edited by Talking Poker; 09-10-08 at 12:50 AM. |
#2
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This is great. Impressive results.
If you aren't able to edit your post by the time betfair sends you the missing info, PM it to me and I'll insert it for you. I may mirror your bets for a while if I can get similar lines on . |
#5
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Tip: AFL (Sep 12) -- Western Bulldogs v Sydney, bet $300 at 1.84
This is the second round of finals in the AFL, which is an elimination round. The Bulldogs finished 3rd with a record of 15-6 (1 draw) and lost last week in a preliminary final by 51 points against second-seeded Hawthorn. Sydney were 12-9 (1 draw) this year, and eliminated the Kangaroos (7th seed) last week. The Bulldogs have beaten Sydney in both games this year, by margins of 18 and 16 points (the latter result being slightly over a month ago). I think the Bulldogs are a better football team, as this year's results have indicated. I think the market is overreacting from last week's results. However, Hawthorn are incredibly good and the Kangaroos are mediocre at best. The game is being played at the MCG, which is not the Bulldogs' home ground, but being a Melbourne-based team they will still enjoy a significant home ground advantage. |
#6
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Tip: Soccer (Sep 10) -- Australia v Uzbekistan, bet $200 at 2.22
My soccer expert friend estimates Australia will be able to pull off a win about 60% of the time, making the line of 2.22 far too generous to pass up. I generally don't bet big unless I understand the sport itself, and since I haven't watched either team recently, I'll keep it small for this match. |
#8
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Are you able to get any of these lines on intertops?
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Rompin and Stompin |
#9
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Honestly, I haven't checked yet. Let me check the latest one now.
Doesn't look like they even cover the AFL. Hopefully sjay will start handicapping real sports soon. |
#10
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I guess I will start looking for a site that covers these damn games that allows US Americans.
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Rompin and Stompin |
#12
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qft. Hating the AFL is like chopping your pecker off.
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