SJay's Sportsbetting Thread

[sjay2k]

Will post my picks and history in this thread.

Will only post results where I have stood to gain or lose >$200.

Please post your tips in here, as well as basic reasoning for them. Usually I think there is value in lines when:
1. the market has over-reacted to an abnormal performance
2. a side is dramatically overbacked because they are popular.

I have my results from the past 3 months and everything before April 2008. Currently waiting on Betfair to email my statement from the intervening period (ridic hot streak in there) and i will update my results. Also please note that the results are net of commission (subtract 5% from wins for real results).

History:

2007:
Mar 27 -- Cricket -- Australia v West Indies, bet $2420 at 1.27, +$653
Mar 28 -- Cricket -- South Africa v Sri Lanka (in-play), bet $1200 at 1.47, +$564
Apr 1 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v West Indies, bet $400 at 1.59, +$236
Apr 2 -- Cricket -- NZ -79.5 runs v Bangladesh, bet $275 at 2.4, +$385
Apr 4 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v England, bet $210 at 1.47, +$99
Apr 8 -- Cricket -- Australia v England, bet $730 at 1.29, +$211
Apr 10 -- Cricket -- South Africa v West Indies, bet $300 at 1.54, +$162
Apr 10 -- Cricket -- South Africa v West Indies (in-game), bet $2000 at 1.12, +$240
Apr 12 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v NZ, bet $200 at 2.2, +$240
Apr 12 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v NZ (in-game), bet $1600 at 1.5, +$800
Apr 14 -- Cricket -- South Africa v NZ, bet $300 at 1.8, -$300
Apr 14 -- Cricket -- NZ v South Africa (in-game), bet $1500 at 1.43, +$645
Apr 16 -- Cricket -- Sri Lanka v Australia, bet $500 at 4, -$500
Apr 17 -- Cricket -- South Africa v NZ, bet $900 at 1.52, +$468
June -- NBA -- various bets on Dallas Mavericks playoff games, -$4200
Aug 18 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Sydney, bet $200 at 2.02, +$204
Aug 25 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Adelaide, bet $300 at 2.9, -$300
Aug 26 -- Soccer -- Newcastle v Middlesbrough, $450 at 2.76, -$450
Sep 2 -- AFL -- Jonathan Brown to kick most goals, bet $400 at 1.98, +$392
Sep 9 -- Rugby -- South Africa -50.5 v Samoa, $125 at 4.8, +$475
Sep 11 -- Rugby -- NZ to win World Cup, lay $1100 at 1.65, +$1100
Sep 12 -- Rugby -- Fiji -9.5 v Japan, $450 at 1.34, -$450
Sep 12 -- Rugby -- Italy -19.5 v Romania, $360 at 1.5, -$360
Sep 14 -- Rugby -- Australia v England, bet $525 at 1.54, +$283
Sep 15 -- Rugby -- Australia -5.5 v Wales, bet $620 at 1.45, +$279
Sep 16 -- Cricket -- South Africa v England, bet $600 at 1.52, +$312
Sep 19 -- Cricket -- India v England, bet $1350 at 1.99, +$1336
Sep 22 -- Cricket -- Australia v India, bet $950 at 1.5, -$950
Sep 24 -- Cricket -- India v Pakistan, bet $1300 at 1.85, +$1105
Sep 24 -- AFL -- Brent Harvey to win Brownlow, bet $1400 at 4.5, -$1400
Sep 26 -- Rugby -- Georgia -12.5 v Namibia, bet $750 at 1.9, +$675
Sep 28 -- Rugby -- Tonga +20.5 v England, bet $1400 at 1.77, +$1078
Sep 29 -- Rugby -- Australia -43.5 v Canada, bet $500 at 2.2, -$500
Sep 29 -- Rugby -- Scotland v Italy, bet $1200 at 1.41, +$492
Sep 30 -- Rugby -- Argentina v Ireland, bet $500 at 1.77, +$385
Sep 30 -- Rugby -- USA +58.5 v South Africa, bet $250 at 1.7, +$175
Sep 30 -- NRL -- Melbourne to win final, bet $300 at 1.41, +$123
Oct 7 -- Rugby -- Argentina -13.5 v Scotland, bet $1350 at 2.14, -$1350
Oct 8 -- Cricket -- Australia v India, bet $1455 at 1.54, -$1455
Oct 20 -- Rugby -- South Africa v England, bet $2800 at 1.47, +$1316
Dec 1 -- Soccer -- Chelsea v West Ham, bet $500 at 1.4, +$200
Dec 9 -- Boxing -- Mayweather v Hatton, $250 at 1.54, +$135

2008:
Mar 31 -- Tennis -- Federer v Soderling, bet $390 at 1.2, +$78
May 17 -- AFL -- Kangaroos v West Coast, bet $200 at 1.28, +$56
May 17 -- AFL -- Brisbane -7.5 v Carlton, bet $400 at 1.86, +$344
May 18 -- AFL -- Essendon +37.5 v Sydney, bet $200 at 1.9, -$200
May 25 -- Cricket -- Deccan v Bangalore, laid $800 at 1.73, +$800
May 25 -- NBA -- Spurs v Lakers, bet $400 at 1.42, +$168
May 29 -- Tennis -- Hewitt v Fish, bet $470 at 1.38, +$178
May 30 -- NBA -- Spurs +8.5 v Lakers, bet $400 at 1.81, +$324
June 2 -- Tennis -- Ferrer v Stepanek, bet $800 at 1.62, +$496
June 5 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $300 at 1.78, +$234
June 8 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $200 at 2, +$200
June 10 -- NBA -- Celtics +9.5 v LA, bet $200 at 1.96, +$192
June 11 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Czech Republic, bet $650 at 1.84, +$546
June 12 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 192.5 pts, bet $250 at 2.12, -$250
June 12 -- NBA -- Celtics +8.5 v Lakers, bet $200 at 1.8, +$160
June 14 -- Soccer -- Russia v Greece, bet $400 at 2.4, +$560
June 15 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 191.5 points, bet $750 at 1.89, +$670
June 17 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, bet $200 at 1.51, +$102
June 17 -- NBA -- Celtics v Lakers, over 191.5 points, bet $300 at 2.16, +$348
June 17 -- Soccer -- Netherlands v Romania, bet $200 at 2.94, +$388
June 19 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Germany, <3.5 goals, lay $500 at 1.24, +$500
June 19 -- Soccer -- Portugal v Germany, >2.5 goals, bet $500 at 2.68, +$840
July 1 -- NRL -- Qld -4.5 v NSW, bet $400 at 2.12, +$448
July 2 -- Tennis -- Ancic +7.5 games v Federer, bet $600 at 1.71, -$600
July 3 -- Tennis -- Federer to win Wimbledon, bet $600 at 1.89, -$600
Jul 27 -- AFL -- Melbourne +26.5 v Kangaroos, bet $200 at 1.99, +$198
July 29 -- Olympics -- USA most medals, bet $620 at 2.3, +$806
July 30 -- Olympics mens basketball -- USA to win gold, bet $500 at 1.39, +$195
Aug 1 -- AFL -- Collingwood +15.5 v Hawthorn, laid $220 at 1.91, +$220
Aug 2 -- AFL -- Adelaide v Carlton, bet $200 at 1.72, +$144
Aug 2 -- AFL -- Brisbane v Kangaroos, bet $300 at 1.8, -$300
Aug 3 -- AFL -- Bulldogs -15.5 pts v Sydney, bet $520 at 2.01, +$505
Aug 20 -- Olympics mens basketball -- Australia v USA, under 180.5 pts, bet $400 at 1.86, -$400
Aug 20 -- Olympics mens basketball -- Argentina v Greece, bet $300 at 1.65, +$195
Aug 22 -- Olympics womens basketball -- Australia -28.5 v China, bet $300 at 3.6, +$780
Aug 23 -- Olympics womens basketball -- Australia +7.5 v USA, bet $500 at 2.34, -$500
Aug 29 -- AFL -- Fremantle +15.5 pts v Collingwood, bet $200 at 1.93, +$186
Aug 30 -- Tennis -- Jankovic v Zheng, bet $1200 at 1.46, +$552
Aug 30 -- Tennis -- Tsonga v Moya, $680 at 1.79, +$537
Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Roddick First Sret v Seppi, bet $600 at 1.34, +$204
Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Jankovic v Wozniacki, bet $450 at 2, +$450
Aug 31 -- Tennis -- Federer 3-0 v Stepanek, $200 at 1.91, +$182
Sep 1 -- Tennis -- Safina 12-0 v Groenefeld, bet $250 at 1.9, +$225
Sep 1 -- Tennis -- Monfils v Fish, bet $600 at 1.69, -$600
Sep 6 -- Tennis -- Federer v Djokovic, bet $400 at 1.82, +$328
Sep 7 -- AFL -- Geelong v St Kilda, Total match points <190.5, bet $200 at 2.94, +$388