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  #26  
Old 05-21-06, 03:09 PM
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Makes sense -- I guess the ultimate question in determining the EV of this play is how often you'd be called. Im assuming AA KK QQ only JJ and below folds, and AK folds (even if AK calls, thats actually great -- well as great as it can get if you're called, because we're probably a 60/40 dog, which means we'd win more than 1 out of 5)

The next question is that if you are sitting 6 max, how will the range of hands you are called by change? PERSONALLY, they probably wouldn't change for me (as regardless I dont want to gamble for a nice chunk of my stack for no reason agaainst an unknown player) but for others they may.

Ultimate exactly how often you will be called (and if you are called by hands that dont have you 80/20 it needs to be calculated that you will win more often than 1 out of 5) determines the EV of this play -- and even that may (actually will) vary from table to table/player to player
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  #27  
Old 05-21-06, 03:57 PM
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Of course that varies. That's why in terms of EV, we talk about the long run, averages, etc. I was making estimates. YOU and I may fold JJ, but we both there there is some tool out there who is going to call with 88 and ATs.

All you can do is list the ranges of hands that will call, determine how often they will turn up in one of the players behind you hands, and then calculate how often you'll win in each situation.

YES, when ATs calls, you're not going to be a 4:1 dog, but certainly you agree that ATs is better than your random hand, so you are going to be behind... so adding that into the equation HURTS your overall EV - it doesn't help it. I was trying ot be as simple and conservative as possible, and I can not see how this could possibly be a +EV play - Under any circumstances. If someone thinks they can, please, by all means, spell it out for us - mathematically, like I did.
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