Double shootouts in general are not the best way to get to qualify for the big events. In general, your first table is always going to be relatively weak. The second table is going to be full of higher quality players.
Say you're a decent SNG player that can win the tourney 30% of the time against a normal field. And with the second sng being a lot tougher, but since you're better than avergae still, say you can win 1 in 6 times you're at the second SNG.
You'll expect to qualify 1/6 * 0.3 = 5%
So basically one out of every 20 times on avg. It's still +EV to play in it - as opposed to buying into the main event for 10k + 2k expenses. However, you should be able to find higher +EV alternatives to qualify.
The $650 direct satellite is a much better option. In general the field you have to face is much weaker. You will not get a concentrated table full of higher quality players. On top of that, I suspect a lot of players still don't know how to play MTT's that award seats to the top X players. If you understand how to play when it gets near the bubble, you increase your EV over the 'standard' player.
I'm not saying everyone that plays the direct satellites are idiots, but you're going to find a lot more players that don't fully understand how to correctly play them...thus increasing the EV.
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