Qualifying for the WSOP

[Windbreaker]

Double shootouts in general are not the best way to get to qualify for the big events. In general, your first table is always going to be relatively weak. The second table is going to be full of higher quality players.

Say you're a decent SNG player that can win the tourney 30% of the time against a normal field. And with the second sng being a lot tougher, but since you're better than avergae still, say you can win 1 in 6 times you're at the second SNG.

You'll expect to qualify 1/6 * 0.3 = 5%

So basically one out of every 20 times on avg. It's still +EV to play in it - as opposed to buying into the main event for 10k + 2k expenses. However, you should be able to find higher +EV alternatives to qualify.

The $650 direct satellite is a much better option. In general the field you have to face is much weaker. You will not get a concentrated table full of higher quality players. On top of that, I suspect a lot of players still don't know how to play MTT's that award seats to the top X players. If you understand how to play when it gets near the bubble, you increase your EV over the 'standard' player.

I'm not saying everyone that plays the direct satellites are idiots, but you're going to find a lot more players that don't fully understand how to correctly play them...thus increasing the EV.

[eejit101]

IM awaiting for the 150 seat guaranteed

[Zybomb]

Very good post, espeically about the quality of players at the 2nd table for the DS...when thinking EV vs the big tourny I have a few Q's though.

I think the first table (from my experience) is AWFUL...generally with 2 MAYBE 3 good players (including myself). I'd say I should be able to win one in 3 times at least.

Now say I win the final table 1 in 6 times like you suggested (a decent possibility IMO) that means I'd need to play 18 total times to win (assuming I win on the 6th at the 2nd table and the first table thing works out the long way also). BUT 5 out of those 18 I get my money back for making it to the final table. And one I win. So there will be 12 times that I lose money 160 x 12 = 1920

1920 (cant find the divided symbol on the cpu) 650 = just under 3

If I can only manage to 'guarentee' a Win at a SNG with poor players (table 1) 1 out of 3 times, can I 'guarentee' a placing at one of these MTTs 1 out of 3 times? (I don't know, Im asking)

The next thing is if I cant guarentee those #s, does it become worth it to hit some of these cheap sattys to get into the big MTT overall

[eejit101]

The biggest +EV game will be the 150 seats guaranteed, it has to be.

With what you said Zy, the top at the final table on a double shootout get their money back or a bit extra in the $160s i played in. So say we win 1 in 3 first tables, we should at least get our money back 1 in 1.5 times on the final table, if wer calling ourselves sharks, as i hope we do. And go on to win say 1in 5 times.


So 33% of the time we get to the final, and once there, 66% of the time we win the buy in, and 20% of the time we win a seat.

So i reckon 7/100 times we play we will win a seat. And we will win our money back 22% of the time.

So if it takes 12 goes to get a seat, were getign repaid on 3 of them, so thats a 9 buy in outlay. 9 x $160 = $1350. To win a $12k package.

Thats a hell of a +ev game.

The big sunday ones are different. 1 in 15 people go. say were better than half of them. Thats 1 in 7.5 chance of getting a seat. Buy in 8 times to be safe = $4,000 approx, dont know the figures.

Double shootouts are the move IMO.

How about wualifying for the shootout in a $5,50 rebuy. I spent $16.50, and made it first time.

So if u can qualify one out of every 3 of them you play, it may only end upcosting you $200 to win the seat from the start, it depends how much free time you have.

[Akverno]

I'm fairly certain that I'll be playing the 10+1 rebuy's as soon as I get home to qualify for the 615+35 weekly tournament. Average 4 rebuys per person at ten bucks, decent odds at making the weekly tournament. Then at 615 / entry it'll be tougher to make it past that but I'll give it my damndest. At least this is my plan because I can't afford the double shootout route. I may decide to go for the 5/rebuys and try my luck on the double shootout, you never know. I've got a lot of poker to play as soon as I get home.

Edit: I just downloaded stars satellite schedule and I can't find the 11R tournament anywhere. I guess they're not running it, I'm going to shoot them an email and see what they say.

[Akverno]

It's official, no ten dollar rebuy. What a shame, i was looking forward to it when I finally got home in may.

[Talking Poker]

Good thread. I like the math, accurate or not.

I know a lot of (good) players swear by the Double Shootouts, so I'm sure there is something to that. I've done very well in the first round of them, almost always finishing 1st or 2nd (which gets you nothing), but I've had TERRIBLE luck in the second rounds, usually out EARLY.

When I was playing for the Bahamas, I liked the $615s the best, but I think that's because I prefer MTT to SNG. I think most people prefer the DSs though.

One more key piece of info: The satellites to these tourneys (all of them) - like the $65+5 ones to the $615 - are some of the softest tourneys I've ever seen. I killed those, and I'm sure you could do the same. Dropping $615 for a 1:20 chance at a big package is a lot easier when it really only cost you $70.

Edit: Hmmmmm.... I just realized... I could be playing in these now and stockpiling some W$ for this year's WCOOP. Duh!

[JDMcNugent7]

I'm guessing i couldnt do that ? Don't u have to keep ur seat or something?