Lets see... 50/10000 will advance so my chances are
0.5% and once I make it to Round 2 320/10000 = 3.2%
and then after that I have to place 120/5000 = 2.4%
So chance of placing in the money is 0.000384% if i only use only my free tournament ticket and if my calculations are correct, which they almost never are.