Not that Im as big of an expert as Penguin is...
but in general beware of Road favorites. Minnisota has looked very good this year (granted not anywhere as good as the bears), but I ask you guys to remember the Bear/Steeler game last year where the Bears were +6 on the road and no one could understand it (Pitt had just finished getting beaten by Indy and was a .500 team I believe vs the best D in the league). You figure that if you could buy 1.5 points and move this spread to over a TD (+7.5) you couldn't lose.... Penguin warned to stay away from the game.... and it ended with a 10 pt Steeler victory (it may have been 14 i dont recall)
On the flip side, Rex Grossman has looked great this year, although it's unknown if that will continue , and the D has looked terriffic as well.
I like the Miami game a lot more personally, particularly at home vs a bad team and with a tight division (2-0, 1-1, 1-1, 1-1) where a win would do big things.... but I'd want that spread under 10
__________________
"Most of the money you'll win at poker comes not from the brilliance of your own play, but from the ineptitude of your opponents."
|