Fold equity

[bdawg31]

I think i might have asked you a little about this before, but i couldnt find the string. I notice that you say that this is the case when 'on the bubble' (thus more people are alive).

I also assume that if you are equal stacks HU - being first to ask you are +EV if you shove with any two? What if you have more chips (say you are winning by a 2:1 ratio) - does that change anything? I am guessing that overall it doesn't because that would just mean that maybe the opponents range increases (he feels more desperate) but as stated that does not bring your +EV down to zero (unless he is willing to call with any two - and i doubt that they will).

Or if you are losing (again by a 2:1 ratio) - does that effect the math? Again, i would assume that we would still be +EV. Even though our opponent might loosen his calling requirements (knowing that we are desperate and trying to pick us off), he almost never will loosen to the point of calling with any two.

Then, if this is all true - if we find ourselves HU with a player we think is better than us we are better off shoving any two cards, at least from the SB.

[Kurn]

The example uses equal stacks because then you don't bring stack size issues into play. In the contrived scenario, it is very close to being CEV = $EV. Or better put, everyone has the same risk of ruin.

Obviously if the situation is

UTG: 400
Button:300
Hero: 5000
BB: 7800

You fold all but a very small range (based upon your assessment of BB's calling range). Here CEV <> $EV.

Stack sizes alter push/call ranges. The best players who use ICM are those who use all the information at the table to accurately deduce push/call ranges. That being said, fold equity is still a big part of the calc.

[Talking Poker]

HU, you have the same effective stacks, but as Kurn said, CEV <> $EV. I think you are trying to compare this conversation to what we were talking about the other day, regarding HU SNGs, and I don't think you can do that.

You were saying that you like to go push-bot fairly deep, with the blinds still being small, and I said I didn't think that was a good idea. Run some numbers and I think you'll see that your EVs will agree with me.

ie, looking at the obvious extreme example, on the first hand with 1500 stacks and 10/20 blinds, going pushbot here is just stupid. Even if your opponent will call with 10% of his hands (and I'll be nice and give you a 30% chance of winning with your crap against his 10% range):

He folds, you win: 1520 * .9 = 1368
He calls, you lose: 0 * .1 * .7 = 0
He calls, you win: 3000 * .1 * .3 = 90

EV Fold: 1490
EV Push: 1458

It's -EV and you have taken all the skill out of playing. Even if it was EV neutral, the 5% rake would kill you playing like this.

Now, let's make the blinds 15/30 and give you 600 chips and him 2400 chips and say that he'll call you with that 15% of his range. I think this is more where you were saying you go pushbot, at around 20 BBs (even deeper, as I recall). In this case:

He folds, you win: 630 * .85 = 542
He calls, you lose: 0 * .15 * .7 = 0
He calls, you win: 1200 * .15 * .3 = 54

EV Fold: 585
EV Push: 596

Here, your push is actually slightly +EV, but don't forget about the tourney juice and all that good stuff.

Now let's exaggerate and say he'll call you with 25% of his range and you'll win 40% of the time (I think it's safe to say this is not possible):

He folds, you win: 630 * .75 = 473
He calls, you lose: 0 * .25 * .6 = 0
He calls, you win: 1200 * .25 * .4 = 120

EV Fold: 585
EV Push: 593

Again, this is only very slightly +EV, and I think that's probably best case scenario, right?

Me... I'd rather wait for my opponent to screw up. If you started playing like this against me, I'd tighten up my range and calll when I'm confident I'm a decent favorite, and that should make your push -EV (I don't feel like guessing at numbers and doing that math again, but feel free).