Fold equity

[Talking Poker]

HU, you have the same effective stacks, but as Kurn said, CEV <> $EV. I think you are trying to compare this conversation to what we were talking about the other day, regarding HU SNGs, and I don't think you can do that.

You were saying that you like to go push-bot fairly deep, with the blinds still being small, and I said I didn't think that was a good idea. Run some numbers and I think you'll see that your EVs will agree with me.

ie, looking at the obvious extreme example, on the first hand with 1500 stacks and 10/20 blinds, going pushbot here is just stupid. Even if your opponent will call with 10% of his hands (and I'll be nice and give you a 30% chance of winning with your crap against his 10% range):

He folds, you win: 1520 * .9 = 1368
He calls, you lose: 0 * .1 * .7 = 0
He calls, you win: 3000 * .1 * .3 = 90

EV Fold: 1490
EV Push: 1458

It's -EV and you have taken all the skill out of playing. Even if it was EV neutral, the 5% rake would kill you playing like this.

Now, let's make the blinds 15/30 and give you 600 chips and him 2400 chips and say that he'll call you with that 15% of his range. I think this is more where you were saying you go pushbot, at around 20 BBs (even deeper, as I recall). In this case:

He folds, you win: 630 * .85 = 542
He calls, you lose: 0 * .15 * .7 = 0
He calls, you win: 1200 * .15 * .3 = 54

EV Fold: 585
EV Push: 596

Here, your push is actually slightly +EV, but don't forget about the tourney juice and all that good stuff.

Now let's exaggerate and say he'll call you with 25% of his range and you'll win 40% of the time (I think it's safe to say this is not possible):

He folds, you win: 630 * .75 = 473
He calls, you lose: 0 * .25 * .6 = 0
He calls, you win: 1200 * .25 * .4 = 120

EV Fold: 585
EV Push: 593

Again, this is only very slightly +EV, and I think that's probably best case scenario, right?

Me... I'd rather wait for my opponent to screw up. If you started playing like this against me, I'd tighten up my range and calll when I'm confident I'm a decent favorite, and that should make your push -EV (I don't feel like guessing at numbers and doing that math again, but feel free).