Playing some 25nl again

[Talking Poker]

How does your look?

[Akverno]

Below is my game analysis graph and luck graph.

[Akverno]

Below is my poker grapher graph.

[Talking Poker]

That should be a pretty good reality check for you. You are running really, REALLY hot.

Read melioris' posts in this thread:


Keep playing, but don't get too discouraged when your numbers eventually come back to earth. In the long run (I think - someone please correct me here), we should "expect" our win rate to end up closer to where the Sklansky Bucks line is, right?

And yours is actually negative right now.

[melioris]

nah, I think you got it wrong here. Akverno is winning everything w/o SD, as the SD winnings is at 0, but total winnings is at $300. So, until the tables adjust to him, he should be able to sustain this winrate indefinitely, as theortically, the hole cards he is playing are not influencing his winnings.

[hackers238]

Maybe theoretically, but I think that perhaps the hole cards were influencing the plays he made, and without those hot hole cards, the same plays probably wouldn't get made.

Looks to me like people might have liked calling you up until the river, then said **** THIS.

[Talking Poker]

So.... the difference between the red and blue lines (SB and SW) tells us he is running well in those situations. But the much higher green line (total winnings) says he's winning lots more pots without showdowns. Right?

So the "expected" longer term results (assuming everything stays exactly the same, no one adjusts, etc) would really be:
Green line - (Blue Line - Red Line).

Right?

[melioris]

Ok, I think I am being dumb, but I don't get what you are saying.

The colors are unnecessary descriptors. His total winnings (shown on graph) is his non-SD (not shown) + his SD (shown). The Sklanksky bucks line is only as good as it is calculated, and I have heard that it is calculated poorly in pokerEV, so I don't put a lot of faith in it. But looking at his SD winnings ($0) and his total winnings ($300) it tells us that he is winning all his monies in non-SD pots. Extrapolating out from this, akverno is aggressive postflop, firing multiple streets and winning a lot of pots (probably not with the best hand) by folding people out on the flop, turn, and river. if we plotted his winrate in non-SD pots (total winnings-SD winnings), the slope of that line doesn't have to change. Does this make sense?

So, theoretically, as long as he continues to break even in SD pots, he could maintain his current winrate as long as the tables do not adjust. The problem with this style is that 1). it is very exploitable and 2). it is actually difficult to keep your SD line around the break even.

I would hazard a guess that Akverno is running well not because his total winnings line is so far above his SD winnings, but in fact the opposite. I think Akverno is running hot because his SD winnings is too high compared to where it should be to maintain the extrapolated non-SD winning line. IE, if he is that aggressive and taking down pots, when he has been getting looked up his has had the goods more times than he deserves to based on this style.

Does this make sense?