WA/WB flop situations and the merits of checking

[hackers238]

Thanks Raistlin, I looked for that article earlier today but couldn't find it!

I'm pretty sure they fold Ax. NL25 is pretty damn aggro on FullTilt. Unless they are a calling station of course (VPIP pretty high, Aggression Factor real low by street), but I'm talking about an unknown here.

Yes that was what I was inferring. That way you once again keep it to two streets of value rather than three.

[Zybomb]

Granted Ive never played .10/.25 NL before, but I can't imagine players at this level are going to be limp calling with Ax only to fold when they hit TP... in fact you can argue that villain probably isn't very good if he limp/called Ax HU OOP in the first place, so it makes it even less likely

If that is the case (I dont believe it is) then the entire KK example given above is null and void since betting can now bluff out most aces

[hackers238]

Hmm it seems like perhaps this is a problem involving weighting the chance your opponent calls 3 streets of value with a hand you beat, and the danger of them sucking out with the extra card you grant by checking the flop IP.

Obviously if they will never call three streets of value with any worse hand and had no chance to improve, it's trivially better to check behind. You get the same outcome (2 streets of value), plus additional bets fired at you by PP on the turn, and a sightly likelier chance of getting your bets called on the turn and river than on the flop+turn. You also potentially lose less in the hand when villain has flopped a set. You may still lose the same if the villain goes for another c/r, but I can't see a sane villain taking that line.

However the higher the chance for villain to improve and the higher chance a hand can give you 3 streets of value, the more betting the flop looks good. Seems like just a number crunching game with the villain's stats. And if you don't have stats, knowing the most likely style of an unknown at the level/site you're playing.

[hackers238]

No, I'm not saying they fold the flop. I'm saying they won't give you 3 streets of value with Ax, and the chance that they give you 2 streets of value with Ax is greater when betting the turn+river than when betting the flop+turn.

[melioris]

I am late to this dance and I am not reading all the posts, but this isn't the best example of WA/WB. You have TPTK, bet it to build the pot and protect your hand, you will get called by worse hands. IP against someone who calls my CB AND calls my turn bet, then on the river you can decide if you should check behind or shove. Alternatively, you may decide, particularly if the turn card is a in the OP hand, then, maybe you can check behind and call river or bet river for value. But you got position with a strongish hand, shit son, what else do you want. TPTK is the nuts, yo.

If you are bummed because you everyone is folding to your CB in these situations except for sets, don't forget that you are claiming these pots when you don't have TP so don't worry about it.

[hackers238]

Hmm thanks for all of the interesting replies!

Sorry if I'm being thick-headed about this, I'm just trying to learn

Nah, I'm actually not really basing this off experience, rather another thread. I'm also trying to think of this in a theoretical vacuum, so I'm not considering other hands which balance my range in this spot.

I understand building the pot, but I don't feel like TPTK really is the nuts in FR with all 100BB stacks, which is the reason for this post.

I think that's my problem with it. We aren't protecting against anything, (WA/WB), and I don't want to build the pot to 100 BB.

[stormswa]

You should be looking to get max value from your hand at every street, TPTK isnt a time to get cute with your hand. Its not powerful enough to try to trap your villian, if we dont bet we have zero clue where we stand in the hand. When you flop a set you are pretty sure where you stand in the hand unless someone else flopped a higher set and in that case.....well your getting stacked.

Here is the problem if you check there could be a ton of turn cards that could give you problems. The players at that level are not to smart and they usually are not to aggressive with top pair so you should be able to extract tons of value from them on every street. TPTK just cant be checked on most flops, I personally dont ever trap my players no matter what I flop. I always bet out on missed flops and monster flops, I bet quads lol. I do this because im not strong enough in cash games and I know if I always bet then im pretty much unreadable.

But again im not super strong cash game player like Wes and others so take my advice for what it is my opinion. If Wes or any of the other real good cash game players disagree with anything I have said then they would be the ones to listen to.

[hackers238]

This is the part I disagree with... I think there are remarkably few turn cards that give us problems. This is why I think this situation is WA/WB.

It's true, I agree with it mostly. But I think that Ax hands aren't calling 3 streets.

That's exactly what my strategy has been thus far! Literally, I'm 90-95% CBet, and the conditions that cause me NOT to CBet are sitaution dependent rather than hand dependent. For example being OOP in a 4-way flop, or against multiple Laggy opponents, or when my image is totally shot. This is one of the reasons I made this post as well, as it seemed like an interesting spot to check behind for pot control. However now that seems not to be the case.

Thanks again for the thread post, I'm still surprised you posted EXACTLY the thread I was looking for earlier!

[melioris]

I don't know fuckall about FR these days, but there are tons of suited Aces that will call for one, or even two streets, even OOP. You are protecting your hand from the miracle 3-outs by betting, you are building the pot against AT and the like. If you are worried about hands that have you crushed, well sure, don't call a raise if raised on the flop. If called, check behind the turn if you must, but I would rather b/f the turn and then either call (depending on villain's river bet) or bet or check on the river.

We haven't gotten into the whole validate your CBing thing either, which is another reason to bet here. If you are giving the players enough credit at $25NL FR where you do not think you will get paid off by a weaker A here, my god man, think of the information you are giving them if you SD after checking this flop. Expect none of your CBs to be respected after that.

Here is the trick to that last sentence. The second part of the sentence seems a little ridiculous at these levels, no? Well, it is entirely consistent with the first part, which you have stated strongly. So either the second part is not crazy, or the first part is wrong. I go with the latter. Bet this flop. ABC wins the monies.

[Talking Poker]

Cha-ching.

Again, read your own sig!

P.S. Excellent thread!