How Lucky Do You Think You Are At Poker?

[Kurn]

Gold and Moneymaker the luckiest? No way. Jerry Yang is the man.

[Talking Poker]

*Waiting patiently for bdawg to chime in*

[bdawg31]

Ha, i think i am streaky. Early on, when i first started (right before the boom), i suspect i was 50%. Then i got hot - won a few tourneys, then won a few BIG tourneys - i would say i was 60-70% (and as sort of stated earlier - you can be 'lucky' by having series of better hands hold up, or just catch that one big break) during that miracle run.

Then it caught up with me, and i would say i ran lower - i am going to say low-to-mid-40s overall (this is when i had that huge losing-coinflip streak), with some even lower stats (and a few peaks mixed in). I made it worse because i had not learned to handle that kind of run and it played bad on top of that.

The last year (most of 2007) i was just floundering around so i wouldnt even try to quatify that.

I suspect that I am now running right around 50 again. I am back to rebuilding my roll and grinding away. I have had my up and down nights. I feel i am running a little below that in tourney play and maybe lately slightly above that in my cash play.

I guess i should say this is all my PERCEPTION of my luck - logically, deep down, i know that my 'luck factor' has been 50 over this entire run.

[bdawg31]

More on 'luck'. I strongly believe one can 'make their own luck' - or at least the perception of being lucky. In Doyle's book, he mentions how people always considered him a 'lucky' player. He said this was due to the fact that he is constantly pushing the play, being aggressive, raising and re-raising. So, he will at times get his money in with the worst of it. But, people remember when he 'gets lucky' and hits his cards. That combination along with the constant winning of small pots through aggression makes him appear lucky (and i would guess lucky too).

I know that during my 'lucky' period - i was pretty fearless (maybe because i did not know any better). Even playing the cash games (i played higher limit) - i would ram and jam. I am sure people thought i was 'lucky' when i would be raising and re-raising on semi-bluffs and i would at times catch. Same with tourneys - i had zero fear of busting. I would often have what i referred to as 'aggressors remorse'.

As i got more experienced, i also noticed (and still do) that i have less and less 'aggressors remorse'. Which means in theory i am not getting my money in as often with the worst of it. BUT, i am also noticing that i don't get nearly as many bigger cashes as i used to.

When you put this along with when i did have what i believe was a bad run, i started playing in fear of my bankroll.

I am rambling.

[Wes]

Probably like 95% since if I didn't run really well at the beginning I would be broke with like no future.

[lightfungus]

Something I have thought about quite a bit, and you make this point. Timing of your luck is SO important. Is the average really that telling?

Like Storm said, he could have gone busto at the beginning, had a $1.73 left in his account and gone on the SICKEST streak known to man and built a roll up to $79 smackers...but what if he hadn't had that one hand that made him go busto, and THEN went on the streak. Maybe that's what happend...I certainly think something similar happened with JD. He avoided bad luck in the beginning that allowed him to get to where he is from profits of play-money he sold....I doubt it was a respectable bankroll.

Does the long run really matter??? I mean do we actually ever get there...to the long run I mean.

Or are we all lucky because Moneymaker got lucky and introduced the world to poker (me included)?

Maybe the guy's who hit and run while rubbing their rabbit's foot have it all figured out...its all about massaging the timing.

At the end of the day, I don't think anyone can say anything is 100% a result of the individual..."luck" factors into everything in life, and the timing of that "luck" alters the course of your life.

One of the best examples of a work ethic and pure willpower is Michael Jordan. He got to where he was because he wanted it more than anyone in everyone single game he played (the ones that mattered anyway)...but what if he never grew to be 6' 6'' ?

[hackers238]

Yeah, I agree with your luck sentiments fungus.

I admit I must have ran like GOD when I first started, because I beat NL25 for 5 pt/BB over 5000 for my first month. And this is before I started learning basic strategy

Since then I've never had a 5 ptBB/100 month, I've been in the 3-5 range instead.

Excepting this month, where I'm break even at NL25 and ran -4 ptBB/100 over 2K NL50 hands