30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[Talking Poker]

0% chance it's a scam in the stealing people's money regard. He's having one of the mosty trusted people on the site hold all money (both sides) in escrow. That guy has like $44k staked out right now, so if he were to roll, the 5 or 10 or 15k from this would be fully recoverable from his investments.

So it's a 0% roll risk.

The only thinkg I'm worried about is if he has figured out some sort of loophole that is going to allow him to do that that no one has thought of. I just have to think SOMEONE would have figured it out by now. There was concern about the 180s, so he said he won't play any of them.

If anyone wants action on this and doesn't have an account there yet, I can do it for you (this will likely start before you get your account approved to post there). I'm in for $200 to win $100 right now, and amd still seriously considering increasing it. I keep thinking I must be missing something, but can't figure what it is.

[Windbreaker]

Seems like you're getting way the best of it to me.

If you look at Spacegravy's sharkscope (he's a SNG Icon guy who is well ahead of pace for SNE this year), the most SNGs he played in a month is less than 3500.

Even if the guy can play that much, he needs an ROI of 26% in order for him to pull it off.

In addition, he stipulates that all tourneys are 5.50 or below. This eliminates the 6.50 buy in for 45 man SNGs...this is a huge disadvantage against him.

Too me...looking at his his OPR and Sharkscope, there is almost no way he can pull this off without some angleshoot.

I think if you use the sharkscope leaderboard....you can tell this task is nearly impossible without insane volume.

[thrash1294]

DID he state that he would only play single table sngs?
Also what if he played in a$5.50 sng to satty to a mtt then cashed big in that?would that count?

[Talking Poker]

Go read the .

No sattys. No MTTs (well, MTT SNGs, like 45 mans, but not true large field MTTs). Not even 180s.

[Talking Poker]

I PM'd a guy who was thinking about betting the max $2k and opted to not bet at all to ask him why. He replied with this:

I'm not sure about that math because I don't know how many SNGs one can play per hour, even if you are playing 25 at once, for example.

[thrash1294]

It would take more than one single person playing under the screen name. A man has to sleep but a bot does not
so running at an roi of 33% at single table sngs you would have to play aroun 2800 games. So thats aboout 95 a day plalying five at a time average time an hour per game 20hrs a day 4 hours of sleep a day.
Throw in some 45 man sngs.So the math says it can be done.But it would be hard to run that good for so long.

[Talking Poker]

He will have a web cam set up - it's just him.

But why would he only play 5 at a time and not like 20 at a time, so he could play 1/4 as many hours per day?

Looking at the sharkscope leaderboard for "Any Game, $2.50-5.00, Avg. Profit for last 500 games," The top 20 list makes from $6.02 to $4.35 per game. Those are pretty sick numbers, but that's only a 500 game sample. #4 on the list is $5, btw. But let's just say this guy can somehow sustain $4 per game for 30 days (possible? I highly doubt it, but I don't know). To reach $5k, he'd need to get 1250 SNGs in. That's actually only 42 per day, which should be very doable.

I don't know. I don't think that's the best way to approach it though, because those numbers are unrealistic. I don't know what kind of ROI is sustainable playing so many tables for so many days. But if we go with a 30% ROI, that's only $1.65 per SNG, meaning he'd need to get in over 3000 of them.

Can you play 100 per day and maintain a 30% ROI?

I guess it's possible. Sure seem like it would be hell though. I'm pretty sure my money is safe. He'll crack at some point.

[thrash1294]

ooooh the pressure
I would break roi to hard to maintain multi tabling

[Talking Poker]

I agree completely. I think I'm gonna bump up to $500 myself. Want some action?

It's not an angleshoot (that I can think of). The money is safe, it will be him playing (webcam), etc. I think he really thinks he can do it.