30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[Windbreaker]

Seems like you're getting way the best of it to me.

If you look at Spacegravy's sharkscope (he's a SNG Icon guy who is well ahead of pace for SNE this year), the most SNGs he played in a month is less than 3500.

Even if the guy can play that much, he needs an ROI of 26% in order for him to pull it off.

In addition, he stipulates that all tourneys are 5.50 or below. This eliminates the 6.50 buy in for 45 man SNGs...this is a huge disadvantage against him.

Too me...looking at his his OPR and Sharkscope, there is almost no way he can pull this off without some angleshoot.

I think if you use the sharkscope leaderboard....you can tell this task is nearly impossible without insane volume.

[thrash1294]

DID he state that he would only play single table sngs?
Also what if he played in a$5.50 sng to satty to a mtt then cashed big in that?would that count?

[Talking Poker]

Go read the .

No sattys. No MTTs (well, MTT SNGs, like 45 mans, but not true large field MTTs). Not even 180s.

[Talking Poker]

I PM'd a guy who was thinking about betting the max $2k and opted to not bet at all to ask him why. He replied with this:

I'm not sure about that math because I don't know how many SNGs one can play per hour, even if you are playing 25 at once, for example.

[thrash1294]

It would take more than one single person playing under the screen name. A man has to sleep but a bot does not
so running at an roi of 33% at single table sngs you would have to play aroun 2800 games. So thats aboout 95 a day plalying five at a time average time an hour per game 20hrs a day 4 hours of sleep a day.
Throw in some 45 man sngs.So the math says it can be done.But it would be hard to run that good for so long.

[Talking Poker]

He will have a web cam set up - it's just him.

But why would he only play 5 at a time and not like 20 at a time, so he could play 1/4 as many hours per day?

Looking at the sharkscope leaderboard for "Any Game, $2.50-5.00, Avg. Profit for last 500 games," The top 20 list makes from $6.02 to $4.35 per game. Those are pretty sick numbers, but that's only a 500 game sample. #4 on the list is $5, btw. But let's just say this guy can somehow sustain $4 per game for 30 days (possible? I highly doubt it, but I don't know). To reach $5k, he'd need to get 1250 SNGs in. That's actually only 42 per day, which should be very doable.

I don't know. I don't think that's the best way to approach it though, because those numbers are unrealistic. I don't know what kind of ROI is sustainable playing so many tables for so many days. But if we go with a 30% ROI, that's only $1.65 per SNG, meaning he'd need to get in over 3000 of them.

Can you play 100 per day and maintain a 30% ROI?

I guess it's possible. Sure seem like it would be hell though. I'm pretty sure my money is safe. He'll crack at some point.

[thrash1294]

ooooh the pressure
I would break roi to hard to maintain multi tabling

[sjay2k]

i think this is doable

[Windbreaker]

I would have to look at it a bit more before making the bet.

The only angle shooting I can think of right now is that he states that he needs to profit $5000.00 or more by the 30 days. Well technically, he should win a few of the Battle of the Planets awards as a result of playing so much. It should be easy for him to post a high score on the High Orbit leader board for the two smaller buy in levels each week this runs. I'm not sure if in the rules this would count or not.

Aside from that, there's a few poor calculations. The 20% ROI over 6.5 hours a day is not realistic to achieve the $5000 goal over one month.

This assumes he's getting this ROI averaging 24 tables over that 6.5 hours. If any of you have actually tried playing 24 tables at once, (I have), your ROI will simply have to decrease as the table increase - unless you're use to it. Looking at his OPR and Sharkscope, I see no indication that he has ever been able to put in the volume like Spacegravy.

Also, the stipulation that all tourneys are held at $5.50 and under means that he can not play any $6.50 turbos for 45 player SNGs. He must play either $5 dollar regular SNGs and/or $3.25/45s.

Playing at regular SNGs slows down your hourly rate by quite a lot in a 45 man SNG - which hurts when volume - and that is the key for him to pull this off.

The only other thing I can think of right now, is that maybe he's really good at heads up SNGs? He would be able to play the 32 man heads up SNGs and profit a lot like that?

Other than that, I don't like his chances. Is this possible to do? For certain people I think they have a chance - like close to 1:1. From his past performance and all indications - it's highly unlikely.

[Talking Poker]

I agree completely. I think I'm gonna bump up to $500 myself. Want some action?

It's not an angleshoot (that I can think of). The money is safe, it will be him playing (webcam), etc. I think he really thinks he can do it.