30 day $5k from 5.50 and under SNG prop bet...

[sjay2k]

i think this is doable

[2Tone]

Maybe. But reading the PTP thread, it strikes me as tremendously –EV for msusyr24.

Consider this very likely scenario. This guy, a very talented SNG player, grinds and grinds, eight, ten, 12 hours a days, playing 15 tables at a time. He makes upwards of 4k in the first 25 days, a remarkable achievement at these levels. But he hits a downswing, and ends up winning "only" about $3500 in 30 days.

He finishes the month completely burnt out on poker. And instead of having won enough for a nice vacation to recharge his batteries, he’s in the hole for $1500.

If he has the roll and talent to do something like this, why not play a reasonable amount of $100 SNGs? He could well make as much if not more, and much less risk of losing his mind.

I'm also reminded of this guy, who pulled it off ...

[Gordogg]

I don't see how that's humanly possible. I'd definitely take that bet.

[jhill3535]

I don't know if you saw it yet TP, but he changed the escrowing of the funds. Now if you have 10x the wager amount invested in the site you don't have to escrow, but he will still escrow 100% of his portion. This alleviates all the "money better used elsewhere" arguments.

That being said I just doubled down on my bet to $400.

I can see him hitting $2500 in the first 2 weeks, but I think the last week or 2 will kill him.

I am wondering though a bit about the BOP, as I don't think anyone has considered that. He does state in the official rules however that "Sharkscope will be used to verify everything." BOP winnings will not show up in SS, so I don't think he can use that to his advantage.

[jhill3535]

Also, I think that pretty much everyone that has been winning the BOP has been playing 18 mans. I don't think anyone has won any at these lower levels playing 9 mans or 45 mans. He might be able to hit the high orbit with the 45s, but I don't know.

[Talking Poker]

BOP shouldn't count (per his SS comment), but we should confirm that. He can't count that, FPPs, RB, Bonuses or anything like that. This is purely SNG profit.

And that's cool about not having to escrow. Good move on his part. I have more than 50x my bet amount invested, so I should be good to go.

[Windbreaker]

jhill3535 - I don't think you understand how the BOP promo works. 45 man SNGs never counts in the promotion. However, it would pretty easy for any good player to make the top ten of the BOP high orbit with massive amounts of volume. Most people might be able to put in 100 SNGs for an orbit once in a week....for a high volume player, you probably could put in six or seven - makes it relatively easy to cash in the high orbit.

Looking at this now, I still don't like his chances at all. There are a few players out there that I have no questions that are better than even money on this wager. Eg. All the Supernova Elite SNG players, QuasiFiction and his brother DNA2RNA, and some of the SNG Icon players, etc.

Having said that, I'm probably going to pass on this bet. I would only want to make a large bet in order for this to be really worthwhile. I'm sure you guys are getting the best of this bet. Not many people can increase the volume of tables/hands so quickly and win at a significantly high rate. Also the 45-man SNGs won't be the deciding factor as to weather he wins this bet or not. The tables take quite some time to get started, the variance is high, and it takes a lot longer to finish than a single table tournament. To give you an example, over my hottest stretch over 500 games, I had a ROI slightly over 50%. At the 5 dollar level - that would only make him $1375. This would also take a lot longer to play out as the $5.50/45 players are regular speed SNGs. If he's winning this bet, it's definately not going to be a result of the 45s.

[Wes]

Grinder today, legend forever

[Talking Poker]

Confirmed:

I increased my bet to $300 and am tempted to go to 5.

None of you want in on this? Yes, I think it's POSSIBLE he can do this, but I think it's FAR more unlikely that 2:1.