ME Final 9

[Kurn]

I'm certainly not denigrating his play.

I didn't say he can't win, I said it will be very hard. He turned down a hugely +EV flop on (I think) day 4 when he had something like a pair + FD + gut when playing a M of less than 10.

We've all seen him with a 9 BB stack raise to 3x and fold on the flop when he misses. Superior skill can only compensate for giving away so many chips.

He's a great player. he reads people as well as anybody and sets long term traps based on what he's seen. But the minefield of 8,000+ players slants the odds in favor of the gamblers.

The math of the game is such that you can't play Sklansky TPFAP style and win huge events. As I said, a 700-1000 person WPT event he's going to win his share, I just don't think he's got enough gamble in him for the ME.

Just an opinion. If I'm wrong it will neither be the first nor the last time.

No matter how big your edge, you only get so many +EV shots.