sports betting

[sjay2k]

Sports betting can be very profitable. The trick is
a) working out when a line is wrong
b) getting the best odds


Yes, Mardy Fish is a big dog against Nadal. But Nadal is not invincible; he dropped a set in his previous match against an unspectacular opponent. Nadal is overrated right now, I think Federer is more likely to win the US open. Also, Mardy Fish is a wildly inconsistent player, on home court, who just crushed Gael Monfils in straight sets.

Also, you say you can get -1200 on Nadal in this match. Please use decimal instead of silly American odds (all the pluses and minuses make analyses confusing).

-1200 = 1 + 1/12 = 1.083

However, you can back Nadal on Betfair for 1.14 (less commission, which for you would be the maximum amount of 5%). So you'd be getting 1.133.

Thus if you bet on Betfair instead of Bodog, you would win an extra $298 (more than 50% more value). I know it's difficult for Americans to get accounts on Betfair, but if you're going to bet sports, you're just getting screwed anywhere else.

[Wes]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>> betfair

[sjay2k]

My understanding is that Pinnacle is the best of the online sportsbooks. But you consistently get better value at Betfair because it is an exchange.

[Wes]

I think Lesnar at +105 has some value right now as he is basically Couture except bigger, younger, and stronger. This line is going to move quickly though for Lesnar (opened at +130). Wouldn't be completely shocked if by fight time Couture was +200 because of Lesnar's popularity.

Very excited to see this fight as well.

[Penguinfan]

[quote=sjay2k;150182]Sports betting can be very profitable. The trick is
a) working out when a line is wrong
b) getting the best odds


QUOTE]


a) I disagree, at least to an extent.

b) This is absolutly critical to success in sportsbetting, overlook this at your peril.

[sjay2k]

LOL, if you're betting against correct lines, it's impossible to win. This is basic maths.

[Penguinfan]

Finding a line that is off is of course profitable. There is nothing wrong with betting into a line that is correct if you handicap the game and find value in one side.

Las Vegas is very good at what they do and most lines are very close to the right price.