2009 in Review

[PShabi]

6max LHE is brutal. BRUTAL. As Kurn states, winning players are winning by a slimmmmmmmmm margin. To make money you have to be playing massive amounts multi-tabling.

In my opinion and limited experience, the full ring limit games are softer online but still not like it was in the hey day. I'm finding my success in live LHE. Even with single tabling at a snail's pace and a $4 rake + $1 jackpot drop, I won slightly over 1.5bb/hr in a 4/8 half kill game. That's after a tip too, which speaks to how soft that game is.

My poker goal is to bankroll winnings from that game and try and move up to 8/16 and/or higher this spring/summer when my ability to play more increases.

[JDMcNugent7]

cool goal, $4 rake every hour or half hour? Either way that's brutal for low limit live. In missouri they have no rake, which is awesome and how every casino should be imo, I know the dealers love it. We just tip every hand that gets at least a flop, and at 5/10 NL, $1 is perfectly fine, just put up more for big pots. Also only the winner is tipping, so after you win a $100 hand you could care less about that $1, lose every hand and you never have to tip.

[Kurn]

I assume when he uses the term "rake" as opposed to "time charge" it's max $4 per pot. At FW it's $1 on the flop (no flop, no drop) and $1 increments at specific pot sizes. At FW, the $1 jackpot drop comes at $20 for 4/8, but IIRC it's $3 max rake there not counting the JP drop.

[JDMcNugent7]

oh maybe you're right, i know i played in canada once and they took a certain amount per half hour though, so im not sure

[PShabi]

It's 10% of the pot, up to $4. Plus $1 every pot for the progressive bad beat jackpot.

[Kurn]

Depends on the room. Some rooms have a time charge. For a while FW had a $5/half hour per player time charge for the 1/2 NL. I recall Casino Arizona took the first $1 of the drop right out of the blinds before the hand was dealt.

[Talking Poker]

Here is my problem with your math. Forgetting for a moment that your sample size is miniscule - I mean, this has to be for what 5k hands or something? - even if we assume 1.5 BB/hour is your long term true win rate, you should be able to crush that by multitabling online.

Let's say online you could only grind out .25 bb/hr somehow (including RB and bonuses), playing only 8 tables gives you a 2 bb/hour win rate, which is already higher than your live rate. And we haven't even factored in your time and expenses of driving to and from the game and so on.

And don't forget that by playing 20x as many hands per hour online, you'll be gaining experience so much faster, which should improve your win rate (online and live) faster too.

[PShabi]

Probably between 9k and 10k hands, which is still small, yes. I've played close to 360 hours and I think 25-30 hands is a good estimate. I've counted before.

I've never been able to successfully play more than 4 tables and sometimes that is tough for me to do. What stakes are you calculating for online? Online games are 100X tougher than live games. Maybe more. I'm not even sure I could win @ 1/2 LHE online anymore. They are that tough. And don't shrug this off as bullshit either. Play the games. The 4/8 half kill game I play in is softer than any online pre-legislation game I have ever played in. My edge is so massive it's laughable. Like, there is literally no one else at the table who understands limit hold em. It's free money. I cleared $600 in 6 hours Thursday and Friday night this weekend.

If I win .25bb/100 hands playing 1/2 LHE and I get in 350 hands per hour (3 or 4 tables) then I'm making $2/hr! WTF for??????

In my case, I am driving from my garage to the casino's parking garage which is exactly 1 mile away. So I'm spending $0.25 in gas and it's taking me five minutes to drive, park and walk to the room. My winrate does not include the beer I drink at the game, but it's cheaper than the beer I drink at home. Plus, I get $1/hr in food comps. So, my winrate is around $14/hr including that. What stakes am I going to have to play online, 4-tabling, to reach that? Assuming I can beat those stakes, which I'm not sure I can.

As Kurn stated, .25bb/100 hands indicates HUGE variance. I make less online and honestly, I have way less fun. Plus, I get a lot of thinking done at the table and take voice notes on my phone about shit that I need to get done outside of poker so it's like multi-tasking in a way.

[Talking Poker]

Fair argument. I guess it's just difficult for me to believe those numbers (on both sides). It just seems crazy to me that the difference in skill level between live and online is SO GREAT that the massive loss in volume you could play can't easily make up for it.

If you can only play 3-4 tables of 1/2 limit and eek out .25 bb/hour, then yeah, I guess that's true. But there are plenty of players who play 5 times to stakes, 5 times as many tables, and have 4 times the win rate. That's 100 times the hourly used in your example. I'm not saying just anyone could sit down and have those numbers, but I'm pretty confident you could do a lot better than you are giving yourself credit for.

[PShabi]

Depends on your definition of "plenty" but I doubt there are too many dudes playing 12 tables of 5/10 LHE and winning 2BB/100. Good ass players at that level are probably only winning .5-1BB/100 nowadays.

Also: I'm speaking from experience when I compare online to live play. Online $1/$2 FR LHE, it's usually 2 to a flop. In live games, I'm 3-betting J10s on the button for value when UTG raises and the field cold calls. You NEVER see that online in any LHE game. Raise UTG with AK and have 2 cold-callers and the blinds come along so it's 5 handed. Cold callers have J6o and K2s. Blinds are playing anything. The difference is staggering, it really is. I go to my local card room and in 350 hours I was by far the best player for 348 of them. The other 2 I was really drunk and was still the best but the margin was slimmer.