Winners or Losers???

[GeoffM]

In all honesty, I am up around $3K, but that is so exaggerating my poker skills because I swear about $2K worth is bonus money .

[PShabi]

Your choices are awfully low. $500 is a swing for me at 3/6 short. I'm up well over $500 but in all honesty I've had a shit year up until the last month. Rakeback/bonuses have helped and so has the switch to shorthanded. This month should be my best ever barring some unexpectecd tragedy.

[GeoffM]

Shabi, I know this is low, but I didn't want to have a 10 option poll. I don't think too many people on this site play the huge limits, so I settled on the $500 number.

LMAO, $550 in bonuses from Party alone since April 22nd. I just love free money.

[Penguinfan]

I can tell you to the dollar where I am at, down $26.00. Low limit cash (.50/1 1/2) and small buy in MTT and SNG player who just cant get over the hump. Been like that for two years now. I'm actually one of the few people who play too few hands and get pushed out of pots unless I have the nuts. One more pot every half hour or hour, or one less lost pot on the river per hour and I would be on the other side of the line I am certain. One of these days........

[GeoffM]

+$2,568, within $5.

My crusade regarding bonus whoring, you guys should listen .

[Kurn]

If you haven't done so, buy Small Stakes Hold'em. Read it, internalize it, use it, live it. Things will change.

One thing to try right away is on the flop, treat every decision as raise fold and if there's a good pot odds reason to play your hand, raise. Obviously, this isn't correct all the time, but doing this will put you on the right track towards winning postflop play and teach the proper mindset. Many people understand the basics of preflop play and play tight and raise at the right time, but then play too passively postflop. Try it for a session. SSHE goes into this in much more detail.

One more thing - fold less on the river, especially when the pot > 8 BB. It is usually a mistake to fold the river for one bet in limit.

Remember this old adage - "The time for big laydowns is preflop. The time for loose calls is on the river." Weak players usually do the opposite. Sounds like you're OK with the preflop part, but start seeing monsters under the bed after that.

Again, I can't recommend SSHE enough. 3 years ago, Ed Miller was a programmer in Redmond trying to figure out how to stop being a losing player on the weekends at the 4/8 tables at Muckleshoot. Now he co-authors books with Sklansky and Sklansky sought him out because of his success at the loose low limit games newcomers play. You don't need to reinvent the wheel.

[Penguinfan]

Doesn't mean there aren't monsters under the bed. My favorite quote of all time "Just because I am paranoid does not mean they aren't out to get me."

Words to live by.

[2Tone]

Kurn, I give a lot of credence to your advice, so I’ve thought about this one, but am having trouble making it work.

I read an article in a recent Card Player that said the river card should often be your easiest decision. If you made your hand, bet/raise. If you didn’t, check/fold. But calling one extra BB on the river time and time again with the second best hand seems like a very expensive way to occasionally pick up a pot your opponent was bluffing at. Thoughts?

[BlibbityBlabbity]

Which article? Link?

Kurn, is this a low limit only thing? or would you reccomend calling a bet on the river in higher limits as well? I am working on this in my game right now as well. How do you figure the odds for a river call? I have read very vague descriptions about taking into account the "odds" that the bettor is bluffing, could they be betting a scare card, etc, etc...but this never made "numbers" sense to me.

[Kurn]

My thoughts are this. There absolutely are times when you know you're beat, Usually when you can't beat top pair and it's a bet and a call to you. Even getting 10:1, maybe you beat the bettor often enough, but you won't beat the caller often enough.

You also will fold on the river when you miss a draw, no matter how big the pot is.

On the other hand, if you think you're not folding on the river too much, maybe you're not folding on the turn often enough? Just a random thought.

Clearly, when the pot gets to 12 BB and it's bet-fold to you, your opponent only needs to be bluffing 8% of the time to make the call +EV. In fact, calling isn't very wrong even when there's an overcall. After all, it's only one more bet, and folding the winner would be a disaster.

I remember a hand I once posted on 2+2 where I three-bet an EP raiser with QQ, and it ended up capped 4 ways preflop. The flop came Ac-Kc-3d, it was checked to me, I checked, the LP player bet, one fold, one call, and I called. Some body criticized that play saying 18:1 was not good enough pot odds to "chase my 2-outer (I did not have a club)". What's wrong with that criticism is 18:1 is a 6% shot. I guarantee you, my QQ is the best hand there almost 6% of the time. Then some other know-it-all pointed out that the Qc wasn't really an out because it would "give somebody the flush." Well, hold on. It doesn't give somebody the flush 100% of the time (probably more like 40% of the time), and 30% of the time it *does* give somebody the flush, I hit one of my 10 outs on the river and win the hand anyway.

The point of all this that once the pot gets to a certain size, folding becomes clearly wrong no matter how possible it is that you're drawing slim or dead.

Poker is about making good decisions. There's a big difference between making a slightly -EV decision when the pot is 4 BB and making the same slightly -EV decision when the pot is 20 BB.

The first question you ask at any point in a poker hand when evaluating your decision should always be "how big is the pot?"

If on the river there are 5 BB in the pot and you have TP/WK, and one person bets and the other folds, go ahead and fold. That's fine. But if on the river of a rock and roll hand there's a 4-flush on the board, 24 BB in the pot and one guy bets and the other folds, I hope you never fold top 2-pair (no flush). I know I won't.

Well, that was a long and rambling reply.

[PShabi]

Broad example:

Let's say you play 10 different pots and they all contain 10 BBs each. If you call 2nd pair on the river everytime and lose the first 9, you've lost 9BBs. If you pick up the 10th pot, you've won 10BBs and your net in the 10 pots is one big bet.

Losing 9 hands in a row on the river and your perception is going to be that your losing your ass. However, the 10th pot makes up for it and you've won. You have to be able to put it into perspective. Trust me, Kurn is no fool.

And Kurn already posted!!!!!!