Winners or Losers???

[GeoffM]

Shabi, I know this is low, but I didn't want to have a 10 option poll. I don't think too many people on this site play the huge limits, so I settled on the $500 number.

LMAO, $550 in bonuses from Party alone since April 22nd. I just love free money.

[Penguinfan]

I can tell you to the dollar where I am at, down $26.00. Low limit cash (.50/1 1/2) and small buy in MTT and SNG player who just cant get over the hump. Been like that for two years now. I'm actually one of the few people who play too few hands and get pushed out of pots unless I have the nuts. One more pot every half hour or hour, or one less lost pot on the river per hour and I would be on the other side of the line I am certain. One of these days........

[GeoffM]

+$2,568, within $5.

My crusade regarding bonus whoring, you guys should listen .

[Kurn]

If you haven't done so, buy Small Stakes Hold'em. Read it, internalize it, use it, live it. Things will change.

One thing to try right away is on the flop, treat every decision as raise fold and if there's a good pot odds reason to play your hand, raise. Obviously, this isn't correct all the time, but doing this will put you on the right track towards winning postflop play and teach the proper mindset. Many people understand the basics of preflop play and play tight and raise at the right time, but then play too passively postflop. Try it for a session. SSHE goes into this in much more detail.

One more thing - fold less on the river, especially when the pot > 8 BB. It is usually a mistake to fold the river for one bet in limit.

Remember this old adage - "The time for big laydowns is preflop. The time for loose calls is on the river." Weak players usually do the opposite. Sounds like you're OK with the preflop part, but start seeing monsters under the bed after that.

Again, I can't recommend SSHE enough. 3 years ago, Ed Miller was a programmer in Redmond trying to figure out how to stop being a losing player on the weekends at the 4/8 tables at Muckleshoot. Now he co-authors books with Sklansky and Sklansky sought him out because of his success at the loose low limit games newcomers play. You don't need to reinvent the wheel.

[Penguinfan]

Doesn't mean there aren't monsters under the bed. My favorite quote of all time "Just because I am paranoid does not mean they aren't out to get me."

Words to live by.

[2Tone]

Kurn, I give a lot of credence to your advice, so I’ve thought about this one, but am having trouble making it work.

I read an article in a recent Card Player that said the river card should often be your easiest decision. If you made your hand, bet/raise. If you didn’t, check/fold. But calling one extra BB on the river time and time again with the second best hand seems like a very expensive way to occasionally pick up a pot your opponent was bluffing at. Thoughts?

[BlibbityBlabbity]

Which article? Link?

Kurn, is this a low limit only thing? or would you reccomend calling a bet on the river in higher limits as well? I am working on this in my game right now as well. How do you figure the odds for a river call? I have read very vague descriptions about taking into account the "odds" that the bettor is bluffing, could they be betting a scare card, etc, etc...but this never made "numbers" sense to me.

[PShabi]

I'm not sure what your idea of "higher limits" are (for some 3/6 is high, for some 10/20 is low) but this advice holds true in 5/10. Technically, that's still "small stakes hold 'em."

The advice isn't to take weak hands to the river hopelessly. Obviously, if it's bet and raised to you on the flop and you have middle pair, weak kicker, you may want to think about folding. But, if you get to the river through solid play, you shouldn't let an odd lead out or check-raise out of nowhere make you fold.


Small Stakes Hold 'em is the single most important thing you can read as a limit hold 'em player.

[2Tone]

Found the article.

[Kurn]

The real key decision point in HE is the turn. By that time, you should have a fairly clear idea of the range of hands your opponent is betting. There are several situations were it's correct to call the turn and fold the river (busted draws, for example) or bet the turn, fold the river (2-suited cards on the flop, you're in position, weak-tight or loose passive opponent has been check-calling all the way, now bets when the third flush card hits). However, when the pot reached the 10 BB range and you have something, it's not out the realm of possibility that your opponent is bluffing 10% of the time, or that the board is, say Q-9-5-2-2r your opponent has been betting JTs all the way or 88 and your T9s that you got in cheap with on the button in a multiway pot is the best hand.

This is absolutely true at higher levels as well. Now, if the opponent is one who you're sure would never lead on every street without TP, then go ahead and fold. Fold too much on the river and it's like you're wearing a sign that says "take shots at me". It's only one bet. If you're winning more than 75% of the time you go to showdown, you're probably folding too much on the end. If you're making good decisions leading up to the river, lowering your win rate at showdown from 80% to 67% should increase your win rate.

Say you're winning 80%, so 80/100 hands you call at the river. Now you decide to fold half as often, so you call at the river 150 times instead of 100, but you win 60%, so that 90/150. That's 50 extra bets invested, and let's say the 10 pots you win out of those 50 average only 7 BB each, that's another +20 BB over the same number of hands. (additional edit) Just like in baseball, where the difference between a .250 hitter and a .300 is one hit per week, the difference between a break-even poker player and a winning poker player, is less than one big pot per session.

I don't think this estimate is out of control. 10% bluffs and 10% the lower end of the range of hands the opponent would value bet.

Edit: Don't read Cardplayer for strategy advice. Cardplayer is in the entertainment business.

[Kurn]

My thoughts are this. There absolutely are times when you know you're beat, Usually when you can't beat top pair and it's a bet and a call to you. Even getting 10:1, maybe you beat the bettor often enough, but you won't beat the caller often enough.

You also will fold on the river when you miss a draw, no matter how big the pot is.

On the other hand, if you think you're not folding on the river too much, maybe you're not folding on the turn often enough? Just a random thought.

Clearly, when the pot gets to 12 BB and it's bet-fold to you, your opponent only needs to be bluffing 8% of the time to make the call +EV. In fact, calling isn't very wrong even when there's an overcall. After all, it's only one more bet, and folding the winner would be a disaster.

I remember a hand I once posted on 2+2 where I three-bet an EP raiser with QQ, and it ended up capped 4 ways preflop. The flop came Ac-Kc-3d, it was checked to me, I checked, the LP player bet, one fold, one call, and I called. Some body criticized that play saying 18:1 was not good enough pot odds to "chase my 2-outer (I did not have a club)". What's wrong with that criticism is 18:1 is a 6% shot. I guarantee you, my QQ is the best hand there almost 6% of the time. Then some other know-it-all pointed out that the Qc wasn't really an out because it would "give somebody the flush." Well, hold on. It doesn't give somebody the flush 100% of the time (probably more like 40% of the time), and 30% of the time it *does* give somebody the flush, I hit one of my 10 outs on the river and win the hand anyway.

The point of all this that once the pot gets to a certain size, folding becomes clearly wrong no matter how possible it is that you're drawing slim or dead.

Poker is about making good decisions. There's a big difference between making a slightly -EV decision when the pot is 4 BB and making the same slightly -EV decision when the pot is 20 BB.

The first question you ask at any point in a poker hand when evaluating your decision should always be "how big is the pot?"

If on the river there are 5 BB in the pot and you have TP/WK, and one person bets and the other folds, go ahead and fold. That's fine. But if on the river of a rock and roll hand there's a 4-flush on the board, 24 BB in the pot and one guy bets and the other folds, I hope you never fold top 2-pair (no flush). I know I won't.

Well, that was a long and rambling reply.

[SirFWALGMan]

What about weak good hands. If I have AK and the flop is an A, and I am raising, and someone is re-raising me, do I:

A) Assume I am beat and just fold even though I have a premium hand.
B) Assume I am possibly beat and check-call down hoping to catch a K or A?
C) Do you bet the river with this hand? If you have the best hand, you are likely to have someone fold. If you are beat, then you are likely to get check-raised. So is it better to check through on the river, assuming the guy is in the hand still because he has something, and he will only call-raise when you are probably beat?

What do you do? What do you do?

[Kurn]

The situation you describe is very opponent-specific. An aggressive player will play Ax (where x=anything) like that against a preflop raiser in the assumption that because they now know that 2 A's are already out, it makes it more likely the preflop raiser holds KK-99, KQ, KJs, than a bigger ace.

Out of position, if I bet the flop and am raised, I'll three bet with the intention of following through on the turn (unless my opponent is LP or TP in which case I'd call the flop and check-fold the turn if unimproved).

In position, if opponent bets and 3-bets my raise, the choices are more varied based upon my opinion of the opponent and my perception of my table image as well as the texture of the board. Too many permutations to cover in a general answer.

It's usually not a good idea to get in the habit of folding to one more bet on the flop after you've shown strength. Even at lower limits, that will be noticed by a couple of opponents.

To answer C: In position that depends on the texture of the board and what the action was like on the turn. Out of position, if there were obvious draws on the flop that didn't hit, checking on the river might induce a bluff from a busted draw.

You bet the river heads up when you believe that you will have the best hand 55% of the times you are called.

Hands that fit your scenario would be good hands to post. It's easier to examine strategy when looking at specific situations.

[PShabi]

Broad example:

Let's say you play 10 different pots and they all contain 10 BBs each. If you call 2nd pair on the river everytime and lose the first 9, you've lost 9BBs. If you pick up the 10th pot, you've won 10BBs and your net in the 10 pots is one big bet.

Losing 9 hands in a row on the river and your perception is going to be that your losing your ass. However, the 10th pot makes up for it and you've won. You have to be able to put it into perspective. Trust me, Kurn is no fool.

And Kurn already posted!!!!!!

[junYUN]

yeah something people don't understand about this concept is it's not about calling with no hand, it's about if you made it to the river thinking there was a chance you're ahead...don't let one more bet on a scare card on the river make you fold the possible winner.

[Talking Poker]

Yes, call more on the river.

This is a huge concept and often a common mistake for new and/or losing players. In theory, your "showdown percentage" shouldn't be all that high. If it is, it could mean that you are folding too much on the river. Think about it.

[Kurn]

Not to mention that if the first two times you showdown at the river you show 2nd pair, very few thinking players will bluff at you.