Winners or Losers???

[Kurn]

My thoughts are this. There absolutely are times when you know you're beat, Usually when you can't beat top pair and it's a bet and a call to you. Even getting 10:1, maybe you beat the bettor often enough, but you won't beat the caller often enough.

You also will fold on the river when you miss a draw, no matter how big the pot is.

On the other hand, if you think you're not folding on the river too much, maybe you're not folding on the turn often enough? Just a random thought.

Clearly, when the pot gets to 12 BB and it's bet-fold to you, your opponent only needs to be bluffing 8% of the time to make the call +EV. In fact, calling isn't very wrong even when there's an overcall. After all, it's only one more bet, and folding the winner would be a disaster.

I remember a hand I once posted on 2+2 where I three-bet an EP raiser with QQ, and it ended up capped 4 ways preflop. The flop came Ac-Kc-3d, it was checked to me, I checked, the LP player bet, one fold, one call, and I called. Some body criticized that play saying 18:1 was not good enough pot odds to "chase my 2-outer (I did not have a club)". What's wrong with that criticism is 18:1 is a 6% shot. I guarantee you, my QQ is the best hand there almost 6% of the time. Then some other know-it-all pointed out that the Qc wasn't really an out because it would "give somebody the flush." Well, hold on. It doesn't give somebody the flush 100% of the time (probably more like 40% of the time), and 30% of the time it *does* give somebody the flush, I hit one of my 10 outs on the river and win the hand anyway.

The point of all this that once the pot gets to a certain size, folding becomes clearly wrong no matter how possible it is that you're drawing slim or dead.

Poker is about making good decisions. There's a big difference between making a slightly -EV decision when the pot is 4 BB and making the same slightly -EV decision when the pot is 20 BB.

The first question you ask at any point in a poker hand when evaluating your decision should always be "how big is the pot?"

If on the river there are 5 BB in the pot and you have TP/WK, and one person bets and the other folds, go ahead and fold. That's fine. But if on the river of a rock and roll hand there's a 4-flush on the board, 24 BB in the pot and one guy bets and the other folds, I hope you never fold top 2-pair (no flush). I know I won't.

Well, that was a long and rambling reply.

[SirFWALGMan]

What about weak good hands. If I have AK and the flop is an A, and I am raising, and someone is re-raising me, do I:

A) Assume I am beat and just fold even though I have a premium hand.
B) Assume I am possibly beat and check-call down hoping to catch a K or A?
C) Do you bet the river with this hand? If you have the best hand, you are likely to have someone fold. If you are beat, then you are likely to get check-raised. So is it better to check through on the river, assuming the guy is in the hand still because he has something, and he will only call-raise when you are probably beat?

What do you do? What do you do?

[Kurn]

The situation you describe is very opponent-specific. An aggressive player will play Ax (where x=anything) like that against a preflop raiser in the assumption that because they now know that 2 A's are already out, it makes it more likely the preflop raiser holds KK-99, KQ, KJs, than a bigger ace.

Out of position, if I bet the flop and am raised, I'll three bet with the intention of following through on the turn (unless my opponent is LP or TP in which case I'd call the flop and check-fold the turn if unimproved).

In position, if opponent bets and 3-bets my raise, the choices are more varied based upon my opinion of the opponent and my perception of my table image as well as the texture of the board. Too many permutations to cover in a general answer.

It's usually not a good idea to get in the habit of folding to one more bet on the flop after you've shown strength. Even at lower limits, that will be noticed by a couple of opponents.

To answer C: In position that depends on the texture of the board and what the action was like on the turn. Out of position, if there were obvious draws on the flop that didn't hit, checking on the river might induce a bluff from a busted draw.

You bet the river heads up when you believe that you will have the best hand 55% of the times you are called.

Hands that fit your scenario would be good hands to post. It's easier to examine strategy when looking at specific situations.

[Zybomb]

well since I wrote about my good session how about my bad one

1st hand at the table when i sit down theres is PFR by a late position player, I called with AK from the BB as does the SB. Flop comes AK5. the SB and I check, the PFR bets rather large, I raise he pushes I reluctantly call hoping hes making some dumb move with AQ or trying to bully since he was the original raiser -- no its what I figured it would be 55.

Rebuy , about 20 min later make a raise with QQ have two callers. Flop comes Q,10,9. I bet, someone raises, I push he calls....yup KJ...nope board doesnt pair.

Ok maybe I should of layed the AK down and maybe my push was a little aggressive..... you know what thats how I win many hands too, so what can you do.

-$811

[Talking Poker]

I think NOT getting all your chips in with either of those hands would be a mistake. The number of times you get paid off in those exact situations greatly outweighs the number of times you run into that monster hand that beats you and you don't improve your hand (you had 4 outs twice on the AK hand and 7+10 outs on the QQ).

That's poker, as they say.

[Zybomb]

Yea you're right....I definately have no regrets about the Queens, I may not of needed to push so hard, but regardless by the end all of the chips would of ended up in the middle, nothing much you can do there.

With the AK, my thinking was this though. Nothing but 55 makes sense for him to push with. Any pair is scared of the A and K, and would he really push AQ or AJ that hard? Assuming AA and KK are out due to the low chance of all 4 A's or K's being out, I think what my best chance was he was putting me on a bluff raise of an apparent continuation bet and had a decent but not great hand -- or I saw what I kind of expected to see... 55

Which brings up a point Im now thinking about. Not talking about this instance, but in general, In a cash game, How do you react to an opponents showing of strength when u hit ur AK (we'll say just TPTK not even 2 pair here). Ok you make your raise preflop (or call a raise preflop), then you hit your TPTK. You bet out assuming u were the raiser, or check raise assuming you were the caller and you're raised/reraised,,,,with no unusual read on the player, this is one situation I have not been able to grasp.

Tournament Id reraise preflop with AK 75% of the time, in a cash game however Id say its as low as 20%.... and the way I play becomes very different......

any input about these situations and ways of dealing with them?

Edit: (Im thinking I should of maybe started a new thread so more people will check it out, and because its gotten way off the original topic.....oh well)

[Talking Poker]

Yeah, go ahead and start a new thread with your question.

My quick response is I struggle with that too. It's tough to lay down TPTK when you are playing AK and hit the flop, but when someone is showing you that much strength, it's usually for a reason.