attention sit and go players

[BrianSwa]

well most of the threads I have read on noble poker have said how weak the players are so I think someone from here could do this very easy. Not saying win 5 in a row but place 1st or 2nd 5 times in a row. Sure the payouts suck in $5 sit and go's but add in the $200 free I think makes up for it.

[Talking Poker]

While not impossible, this is one tough task.

Ten players in a SNG. All things equal, you should expect to finish between 5th and 6th. Let's say you are a SNG God, and can finish 1st 80% of the time. Find me someone with a stat like that, and I'll back him all day long. But just for kicks, let's say that's you.

That means the chances of you winning 5 in a row are .8 * .8 * .8 * .8 * .8 = 33%.

Now let's me more realistic and STILL use crazy numbers. Let's say you actually have a history of winning HALF the SNGs you play in. Now the odds of you winning 5 in a row are .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 * .5 = 3%. 3%!!! And that's assuming you win 50% of the SNGs you play in.

See how much the number dropped from 80% to 50%?

Now let's assume you are the average player and you win 1 SNG out of every 10 you play in. Now what are you odds of winning 5 in a row?

.1 * .1 * .1 * .1 * .1 = .001% or 1 in 100,000. Yes, 1 in 100,000.

I dont' thikn they need to worry about paying off too many of these. whgat they do need to worry about (and you too) is how many more people are going to cheat to try to make this happen. If you get 3 or 4 guys in a single SNG dumping chips to one player.............. think about it.

[BlibbityBlabbity]

What I don't get is why they qualify....."if caught colluding...you will not be eligable for the purposes of this contest...etc.etc."

But it is ok outside of the contest??

[ChipFish]

If you legitimately play this promotion and win, just hope that you haven't "Swore" even once.... it's in the stipulations... They won't pay if you do.

[BrianSwa]

holy shit I just won my 5th sit and go in a row!!!!!!!!
admin: not anymore

[2Tone]

This sounds like an invitation for collusion. I figure you would only need about 15 unique accounts. In each SNG, you have two of the unique accounts dumping to the previously agreed upon winner. It wouldn’t be a lock, but at only $5+1, there’s not much financial risk either.

Six or seven players, each with a modicum of expertise and a couple of clean computers, would have a shot at pulling this off. That's a payoff of more than 2k per person. The only thing that would prevent this is I can’t think of anywhere a group of skilled active online players regularly congregate to share ideas both publicly and in private messages.

[ChipFish]

Hmmmmm.
Should I delete this Post?

[Talking Poker]

You know I don't like censorship

15, eh? Yup... seems about right to me.

[GeoffM]

This might not be quite as difficult as you guys tend to lead on.

I am probably in the lower half of hold'em players on this site. I do, however, remember winning 3 consecutive sitngos on UB in about 4 hours not too long ago.

I'm sure a couple of you guys are capable of this.

[BrianSwa]

Im not a great player but I also have won or came in 2nd a couple times in a row and I know If I can do it then some of you also can. Not saying it will be easy but I think you guys are capable of it also.

[Kurn]

For the time and $ invested, it's not as good a deal as the $10 + 1 quad shootouts on 'Stars for a WSOP seat.

Beat 5 straight 10-person tables and get $15K for $27.50 vs. beating 4 straight 6-person tables for a trip to Vegas and a shot at $7M+ for $11.

Less time invested, fewer players to beat, and identical profit *if* you sell off 50% of yourself in the WSOP ( counting the $1K cash 'Stars gives you).

Also, if you're twice as good as your opposition, you're a 3,000:1 dog at Noble and a 99:1 dog at 'Stars.

Not even close, as lottery tickets go.

[Talking Poker]

Bingo.

[BrianSwa]

I never compared it to other sit and go's on other sites just thought it sounded like a decent idea for some. Didnt know stars had that, sounds pretty cool, I just posted it because thought some people on here are good enough to do it.

[Talking Poker]

Dont' get me wrong.... I'm glad you posted it and I think it's "neat," but I don't think it's particularly a good deal... nor do I think anyone here (or elsewhere) could do it, without getting extremely lucky.

Keep us posted though. I hope someone takes it down.

[BrianSwa]

Ill be home alot in next couple days that ill have time to play them, Ill let you know how I do.

[Kurn]

I realize that. That wasn't my purpose. It's just good practice to run the numbers against comparable opportunities so people aren't making decisions in a vacuum.

[ChipFish]

Yeah.
I hate doing housework too.