For the sports bettors

[Talking Poker]

And I for one am happy to read them.

I know there are people who SUCCESSFULLY make a living betting sports. I think it's got to be an extremely difficult (and dangerous) way to make a living... but like poker, sports wagering is clearly a game of skill, not a game of chance, so it only stands to reason that there are some people better at it than others.

It's got to be tough to beat the vig in the long run though.

If you don't mind me asking, Penguin, how are your long term numbers?

[Penguinfan]

Exact number from years gone by I just don't have, dollars and cents I can tell you to the penny for the last 5 years. I find it useless to post numbers on forums as it just starts the inevitable bashing that follows as nobody wants to believe people are winners or want to challenge how much anyone plays on a given bet.

I am still a small timer in terms of the sports betting world, still $200 a game, no more, no less. I keep that bankroll seperate from EVERYTHING else I do, including poker. I play very small stakes poker in comparison to my sports betting for a simple reason, I win at sports betting and lose at poker. Most people would not have that kind of discipline, I'm happy I do.

The sports betting bankroll is honestly a way to pay off the mortgage early, that much I wasn't joking about in the other thread. I've done well enough that we refinanced the house 3 years ago and dropped it to a 15 year mortgage from a 30 year mortgage which we had 27 years left and did not icrease our payment (actually went down $40 a month). Dropping the interest rate helped that process as well.

If things go well enough we will have it paid off 6 more years.

If I end up refinancing BACK to 30 years it means I lost my ass, let's hope it doesn't come to that.

[JDMcNugent7]

That's sweet- I just wanna bet my friends as we are all big gamblers, I'm way into Fantasy Football and am in a league for money and I am one person that will read all the posts about who u are picking to win that night and then decide from there. So thx, its helpful, and good job on it- sounds like ur doin awesome at it.

[Zybomb]

Penguin I am very interested in hearing your opinions... I bet sports small time, but I have a close friend who is much more serious than I am... I'd like to get a little more involved however.

[Talking Poker]

I wasn't asking for an exact number... all I was getting at is wondering if you are up or down long term.... I see you are up, and that's great. So my next question, is what kind of variance do you see with sports betting? Particularly yeear to year, but also month to month.... I realize it depends on how many games you bet each month, but I'm curious. Do you have 7 winning months per year? 8?

As for the $200 per game, that's interesting... So you look at $200 as one unit and that's what you bet, no matter how much you love a line?

I'm the exact opposite as you. I'm a VERY small time sports handicapper compared to poker.... I do it more for fun than anything. It makes the games a lot more exciting.

I opened my account in 1996 or 1997, made a small deposit, and haven't had to redeposit since. I started off betting $5 and $6 per game, and even making a bunch of $1 bets. I WAY up to the $10, $20 and occasional $50 range now - lol....

[Windbreaker]

On top of handicapping, you can always make money by bonus whoring and getting bonuses by signing up through affiliate links.

The bonus whoring requires a bit of work and might require a large sum of money being dumped at one site. Basically what you have to do is sign up to get a deposit bonus from the site. Most site requires the deposit + bonus amount to be rolled over a few times over before allowing a withdraw.

Now the key to the whole whoring is to find an identical lines that pays about even money or better for each team of the wager on two different sportsbook.

Eg. Site X gives the line Team A -3 vs Team B Pays Even
Site Y gives the line Team B +3 vs Team A Pays Even

Now you can make two large equal size bet on both sites and clear a large portion of the bonus. Continue to do so until the bonuses are cleared.

[Talking Poker]

Clever.

I guess the key is finding even money...

[Penguinfan]

Good questions there and I'll try to answer all the ones that can be given a finite answer.

Variance in sports betting is nothing like poker, especially since your never really moving up or down in levels, you find an amount you are comfortable with that your bankroll can withstand and you stick with it. Make sure it's enough to cover what you want to win long term. Remember, the best in the business rarely see 60% win rate and the opposite holds true if you are any kind of serious handicapper, meaning you will not drop below 40% for a given period. If you do you need to re-evaluate your handicapping skills and realize it's not bad luck, your making mistakes. We will win as many games as we lost like last night. We'll be on the wrong side and get the win sometimes, it happens. So variance is not that much of an issue, GRINDING it out is the issue.

Much like when I say you just can't beat poker long term because of the run of bad beats and cold cards and you guys argue I am wrong, well honestly I know that, I just haven't figured out how to beat the game yet.

Look at the wagers place by Omahilo last night, getting the Rangers at -1.5 +225 and the Rams at +13.5 -110 and placing say $100 on each bet actually got him a profit of $115 and thats great, not spectacular and it was rough watching the wheels come off for the Rams in the second half, but we did grind out a profit and we move on to the next days card.

Do I bet the same amount every game, well I really try to though I make the occasional blunder and really hammer a game. This honestly shouldn't happen, not becase I don't like some games more than others but rather those are the only games you should be betting. Forcing action will kill you. You see guys on message boards (and at the window in Vegas) saying 2 units on this game and 1 unit on these other three games when in reality they should ONLY be betting the first game and only for their standard amount. Betting more because "I'm up this week" is nonsense as well. At the end of the week I would hate like hell to go 7-5 on plays and lose money becasuse I doubled up on a game or two. This is where variance comes into play and only because you invited it.

Could the opposite happen and you go 5-7 yet make money because you LOVE the Monday night game? Sure, but first off you still have issues with your handicapping system that will ruin you long term, and besides, how often do you see the guy at the blackjack table who keeps doubling up his bets because he has to win one eventually ever break even? We all have a story of hitting a big bet to get us unstuck, but in reality it hurts you much more often than it helps you.

You say you are a small time sports bettor compared to poker, GOOD, obviously you are very good at poker and probably didn't spend an hour going over the MNF game last night. It only makes sense to put the money where your strength lies, for me it's the opposite. I doubt I will see you handicapping a game on your own and throwing 5 grand on it, much like you won't see me enter a poker tournament against pro's with a 5K buy-in, get it?

Sports betting at it's finest is much like winning lower limit poker, it's boring, a grind, and a lot of work, but it can be profitable.

[Talking Poker]

Cool, thanks...

And feel free to keep on posting your picks. It appears others are interested as well. Maybe we should track your record, for fun (if you want). I think you're 3-1 right now, which is a pretty nice start.