Stars 200+15

[BlibbityBlabbity]

I would say you should treat the decision to make a deal like any other hand at the table. Generate percentages (based on your chips vs other players, your skill level vs other players, how you feel) and then rate the deal vs what you assign as your chances of doing better. Leaving money on the table because there was a 10:1 chance that you would get 3rd is not a reason for making a bad deal any more than folding AA would be if the other player told you they had KK (leaving you in 3rd place if they catch a K or a backdoor flush/stright). You have a greater chance of winning and therefore should either be compensated for that greater chance or not take the deal.

I can see where the amount of money is great enough in this case where people could easily get overwhelmed by the prospects of "losing" $40,000 if they get unlucky (I know I would be), but this decision, like any other, SHOULD be made based on what the RIGHT play is for the situation.