NFL Week 8

Penguinfan · #1 10-24-06, 06:48 PM

Think about how public perception is gonna play into a couple of those lines. The betting public is pissed at the Bears and most of them are saying no way in hell I lay that many points on the Bears again.

Take the Bears, it's really that easy.

Indy/Denver, well again, Joe Public can't believe he only has to lay -2.5 on the Colts against ANYBODY, let alone the Broncos.

Denver tends to rise to the occasion when playing a team that is precieved better than them, covering 8 of the last 10 times playing a team with a winning record.

Denver is TOUGH at home, very tough, other than the AFC title game loss to the Steelers they are 17-2 in home games past three years. Denver is not a place to lay points on the road team.

Keep in mind I am not a handicapper, I just play one on a poker web-site.

Windbreaker · #2 10-24-06, 07:22 PM

Interesting article regarding sports betting from the author of freakonomics:

omahilo · #3 10-24-06, 11:48 PM

I already covered my opinion on the DEN/INDY game and I absolutely agree with Penguin.

GeoffM · #4 10-25-06, 09:03 AM

If Indy scores 17 points, they win outright. No way Denver scores 17 points, or at least not 20. I'm betting the Colts will score 17. Manning finally hit his stride last week and will just keep on moving. I just wonder if Bailey will be covering Wayne or Harrison.

Zybomb · #5 10-24-06, 11:46 PM

The Colts are GETTING points here, Denver is the favorite... but several people seem to think of this as a dangerous bet... so I may change this to a no play

Penguinfan · #6 10-25-06, 12:06 PM

That shows you how much I don't even look at the lines anymore, embarassing.

omahilo · #7 10-25-06, 01:21 PM

I still think Denver can win this game...

The colts havent looked THAT great... They barely beat the jets in a game that shouldnt of been close and they were losing to the TITANS for most of that game till they pulled it out by 1 pt in the 4th quarter.

Dont forget they were also losing to the Redskins at halftime of the game Sunday, the final score is just decieving.

Talking Poker · #8 10-29-06, 11:32 AM

I see the Eagles line has moved from -6 to -8, making me go from liking it to not touching it.

I just made a number of bets on today's games, after doing ZERO research. I took:
Bucs +9 at Giants
Bears -16 vs. San Fran (this bet was for Penguin - I wouldn't have touched it)
Cardinals +4 at GB
Saints -2 vs. Ravens
Rams +9.5 at Chargers
Steelers -9.5 at Oakland

That, my friend, is how we novices do it - glance at the lines and throw some money around. But as poorly as my record has been this year following the "pros" picks, I thought I'd give this a whirl.

Oh, and I bet 2 units on the Saints and Rams, so if you are looking for a couple of locks, fade those for sure...

omahilo · #9 10-29-06, 11:38 AM

Jets +1.5
STL +9
BUCS +9

these are my three... feeling good today.

GeoffM · #10 10-29-06, 12:27 PM

I've got 1 unit on each of Zys picks above, as well as 1 unit on the 3 team parlay.

In other news, I had accidentally threw 1 unit on the Cards to win the WS during the NLCS, got in at +400. I win

juiCe[3x] · #11 10-29-06, 01:20 PM

Funny Bet. Packers going to own the Cardinals

jillaj · #12 10-29-06, 01:43 PM

Good start for the bears. 24-0 in the 1st quarter.

Penguinfan · #13 10-29-06, 04:17 PM

TB, I don't know who the hell was calling plays for TB today, but if they aren't looking for work already they sure as hell should be.

Bears, I'm telling you, Joe Public took it hard on this one. This game probably made LV's day.

Cards, what can you say, Favre was bound to have a decent day eventually.

Saints, well, they are still the Saints I guess.

Rams look like a safe bet at kickoff, but what do I know?

Steelers-9.5 should be easy money.

As the 4:00's kickoff I say you go even on the day.

omahilo · #14 10-29-06, 04:29 PM

I think we got trapped on the STL game...

I think I might bet STL hard on the 2nd half line depending on what the line is.

juiCe[3x] · #15 10-29-06, 06:32 PM

Don't forget that Green and our backup both ran for over 100 yards.

Talking Poker · #16 10-29-06, 09:13 PM

I think I should retire from this whole sports betting thing and stick to poker. Let's review, shall we???

Bucs +9 at Giants
Loser

Bears -16 vs. San Fran (this bet was for Penguin - I wouldn't have touched it)
Winner

Cardinals +4 at GB
Loser

Saints -2 vs. Ravens
Loser

Rams +9.5 at Chargers
Loser

Steelers -9.5 at Oakland
Loser

That right there is some impressive shit, my friends. The game I won was the one I liked the least! Down 6 units on the day - gotta love that!

Penguinfan · #17 10-30-06, 12:30 PM

OK, but there is something very valuable to be learned here. Yea, -6 units in a day is a bloodletting, trust me I know this, however, in an earlier post in this thread you said you made those picks with ZERO handincapping at all, just being Joe Public and looking at the board.

This should easily dismiss the idea that Vegas wants equal action on both sides of a game to ensure a profit, they let you look at the board and sway you to one side with these numbers, honestly.

I'm not saying to go so far as to fade yourself, but look at the board and find the play that looks the easiest, one that looks like Vegas is giving away money and no matter how difficult it is try to handicap the game looking for a reason to go with the other side. You may never find that reason and in fact it may just be an easy play for you for some reason, but give the other side a solid look first.