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#1
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Article in an older CardPlayer
Hand: 10 8
Position: small blind Preflop action: no raise, six players Flop:K J 7 Now facing: a bet, a call, a raise, and a three-bet Analysis: Here's a situation that will cause lots of average players much frustration. There's the illusion that the flop was good for you — a flush draw and a gutshot-straight draw. But with so much action, you'd be unable to confidently lead out even if you hit a 9 for the jack-high straight (which would lose to Q-10), or a heart, giving you the third-nut flush. You're facing three bets in order to win 16 to 21, depending on if the players who are already in continue. That's 5.3-to-1 to 7-to-1. Recommendation: Muck. It's tempting to play for the swollen pot, but in truth, it is more like gambling than solid poker. What could those four opponents be holding? By the same token, you might call if you've been running real good and try to ride your rush. Notice the statement I put in bold. Does this strike anyone as VERY odd seeing how accurately Andrew Shykofsky goes over odds in this segment and then ends with "but if youre feeling lucky, go with it" ?? Defendant |
#2
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no it's not odd, i seem to notice that when i'm on a rush i'm hitting all my draws. poker is about numbers...but it's also about luck.
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#3
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Luck does not follow the law of series...
Defendant |
#4
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it is somewhat strange that this guy would throw that in at the end of the piece, but i think that it might actually add a little bit of credibility and real world application to it. we all know that when we are running good, we will make a couple of bad calls, and then get rewarded for it. at the same time, the opposite happens as well.
there are times when the numbers justify every move, but there are also times when you just have to go with your gut instinct, even if it isnt a profitable move in the long run. |
#5
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Gut instinct
Why would I ever go with my gut instinct if it isn't a profitable move in the long run. My instinct is for getting a sense of whether the guy at the other end of the table is bluffing, or will lay down if I re-raise. I don't (or at least should ignore) any "instincts" about whether the next card will fill up my straight.
Grind, grind, grind. |
#7
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I'd play him.
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